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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (48968)	7/10/2001 12:34:47 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>>Why expect any accuracy from their prediction for a recovery 12 - 18 months from now. << In short that statement is the crux of the entire problem. I would personally feel better if they said the recovery was two years away, because I would know that they again were wrong on the long time table. Analysts and us investors have entirely different agendas. We expect to make money for ourselves, and they expect to make money for their employers by duping us. Regards, Jerome

To: Ian@SI who wrote (48968)	7/10/2001 11:17:04 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

You have probably, inadvertantly, couched the debate. 12 to 18 months says the telcom guys, next quarter says the market. The market was no better at forecasting than "those guys." With the Fed bailing as fast as they can and the ship still sinking, one must go to the crux of economics, momentum. The natural boom and bust are caused by the tendency of an economic system to feed on itself. Momentum favors further deterioration of the dismal state of the world's economies, most notably technology.