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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48991)	7/10/2001 12:37:38 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, A manager without sufficient visibility to see what is going to happen in the current quarter gives a credible prediction for what is likely to happen in the next 1.5 years. I think not! If the GLW prediction turns out to be correct, it will be pure coincidence, nothing else. Re economy, you seem to be favouring a major recession if not an actual depression as the most likely outcome. Again, I just see a very healthy business cycle weeding out the sick so that the strong can become even stronger during the next upturn. I have no idea when that upturn will be reflected in profit growth. I'm just confident that it will come, possibly this year, more likely next year, but almost certainly long before the end of 2003. As long as it comes within the next 30 years, I'll benefit. And if it comes within the next 11 years, I'll be quite pleased. <g> Ian.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48991)	7/10/2001 1:33:56 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

re: 12 to 18 months says the telcom guys, next quarter says the market My finger-in-the-wind says the market is no longer expecting a 3Q01 recovery. I think the market is now pricing in a recovery in 4Q01 or 1Q02. And, IMO, that is possible (but not at all certain), for the overall economy. Telecom, IMO, will be the last sector to recover, and it might take till late 2002, or even 2003, for demand to come back for CSCO and LU and JDSU. But the signs of a recovery, even for the telcos/telco-equips, will be evident before that, and the stocks will recover 6 months or so before the fundamentals do. So, your "window of opportunity" may be shorter than you think. When will INTC announce their 2002 capex? (now that I've been proven wrong about their 2001 capex, it's time to start guessing about 2002).