Lakers,
<< You start with a terms sheet, right? Not exactly, you start with something that works. >>
Back in the summer of 1999 when Perry LaForge was talking about steamrolling Europe with 1xRTT vaporware, terms sheets were being drawn for GPRS vaporware, across Europe, in the US, and in Asia.
Where are we at today? Over a 100 GPRS contracts are firm, and over 60 GPRS networks are in various stages of implementation, many of them built out nationwide.
With proprietary (open) standards the proprietor develops the technology they think people want - hope they want. When development is at a certain stage, standards are developed.
It works slightly differently with open committee based standards. Development is slower, time to market is longer.
<< That's the way how this industry should work. >>
Perhaps that is how you think the industry should work, how a company developing proprietary technology would like to see it work. but it is not the way the wireless industry does work.
The vast majority of carriers favor open committee based standards rather than proprietary (open) standards. As a consequence over 400 carriers representing over 80% of the worldwide subscriber base belong to 3GPP, where standards for 4 of the 5 IMT-2000 radio access interfaces and one if the 2 network types are maintained and evolved for both 2nd generation and 3rd generation systems.
Their focus remains, as it has been for most for some time, on network to network interoperability, uniform implementation to open standards, and global voice and data roaming.
Geoffrey Moore defined how the broader industry works in "Crossing the Chasm" in 1991, and "Inside the Tornado" in 1995.
The fact of the matter is that the pragmatists - the early majority [carriers] - the "people [that] make the bulk of all technology infrastructure purchases" - the people that are "in charge of the company's [carriers] mission-critical systems" - the people that believe in evolution, not revolution, are making the decisions. [Geoffrey Moore from "Inside the Tornado" page 16 in his introduction to the technology adoption life cycle].
Now I'm not sure if "Crossing the Chasm" and "Inside the Tornado" is on the credenza of every executive at Qualcomm, but it sure is at Nokia.
Perhaps you caught my book review of "The Nokia Revolution" I posted on the moderated thread.
>> Gorilla Gamers will enjoy the discussion of "Technology-Adoption Life Cycles", in the "Downstream Innovation" chapter, and the discussion of Geoffrey Moore's ideas that originated in classic technology-adoption frameworks. The author notes that Nokia's marketeer's studied these idea's (contained in "Crossing the Chasm" and "Inside the Tornado") diligently.
He also notes that "Moore's frameworks for marketing strategies fit Nokia's efforts at market-making strategies, which were founded on taking advantage of discontinuities in emerging technology markets. ... In Nokia's marketing strategies the chasm framework has enabled the company to tailor appropriate responses to the early adopter [upstream innovation] and the late-adopter markets [downstream innovation]". <<
Have the executives at Qualcomm read Dr. Gary Hammel's "Strategic Intent", and if so do they apply it, and if not what do they substitute for it?
What is Qualcomm's global focus, and beyond tagging along with the WTO what kind of global strategy do they employ and how do they apply it.
<< And someone starting to get away from that now. >>
The order book doesn't reflect it.
With the exception of the Telstra, Australia a bit back, M1 in Singapore, the juicy China Unicom plum, and perhaps Nextel, we have not seen many carriers switch digital technology migration paths to CDMA.
The fact that CDMA market share has declined in the last 2 years while GSM has grown, doesn't reflect it.
The fact that only KDDI and Qualcomm have chosen cdma2000 for implementing 3G in IMT-2000 WARC-92 core spectrum (with no contracts yet drawn) while over 70 contracts for 3GSM doesn't reflect it.
The fact that we have never seen one of those CDMA overlays we have heard about for so long doesn't reflect it.
<< See the pattern? >>
I see "a" pattern. Do you see "the" pattern?
Someone sees the pattern.
That is why the 1st CDMA International Roaming Symposium is being held in Seoul, Korea, in October.
That is why Telstra and Verizon implemented two-way SMS along GSM lines, and why Verizon is pushing for EMS to be standardized along the lines it has been standardized.
<< Is that why that went by with very little notices? >>
Very little notice?
What was there to notice?
It was a commercial trial and SKT went along with CDG and Qualcomm and called it a "commercial launch". That's PR. PR is good. By the time we got out of trial stage and the smoke cleared things were running pretty well, if not perfectly well.
It proceeded as trials should proceed although each month that passed until February the Korean press noted that the commercial launch had been postponed again, and that Samsung had again postponed delivery of their handsets.
<< Already forgot the pattern of how the koreans keeping the good news out from reach? >>
Are you talking about the cdma2000 good news or the 3GSM news?
I've kept up reasonably with how Korea built its wireless business since 1994, through the debugging phases of 1996, through their pioneering of CDMA circuit-switched data in 1997/1998, over a year before it was implemented in the US, on to CDMA packet-switched data in 1998/99. and now on to cdma2000 and 3GSM WCDMA.
I also observed their 2 asynchronous WCDMA submissions to 3GIG using 5 MHz carrier, their trial efforts with WCDMA in early 2000, and the interesting pattern to now watch is how they apply it to 3GSM WCDMA, and whether or not there will be both 1XEV-DO and IMT-2000 3GSM operational for the World Cup. My tendency is to think that they will not premier IMT-2000 3GSM there, but I would not rule it out.
Most certainly the Korean manufacturers are continuing to ramp their capabilities to supply GSM WCDMA infrastructure and subscriber equipment to the two Korean carriers that will build out in 2GHz, and export to the world. What differs in the pattern here, is that they are in catch up mode rather than pioneering, but other than that the same pattern you refer to will no doubt apply.
Did you see any of the same pattern when you read this:
press.nokia.com
Did you see the pattern evolve when you read this:
nttdocomo.com
Did you see the pattern when this presentation by Myungsoon Park and the Service Production Strategy Team at SK Telecom was posted to the CDG website 15 months ago:
cdg.org
The network architecture they envisioned in that presentation has changed only slightly and it changed only in so far as 3XMC standards development was postponed and 1xEV-DO was substituted and prioritized in development.
KTF's plan presented by Dr.Kyeong-Soo Lee also hasn't changed all that much either:
cdg.org
<< See the pattern? >>
I see "a" pattern. Do you see "the" pattern?
<< What does localize mean? WLL? or only some areas? Or you mean no roaming? >>
All of the above.
I am most curious to see, after 1xEV-DO standards are fully evolved and infra and handsets are commercialized to the Revision B and IMT-2000 1xEV-DO standards, how the US carriers implement it. Particularly how Verizon implements it. Putting on my user hat, it offers potential to me, if Verizon Wireless makes it sufficiently ubiquitous for me to travel with it. Chances are that for portability I'll be using a 1xRTT phone as modem to supplement dialup when travelling, for quite some time, in the same fashion I use one now. I do not see myself replacing Verizon ADSL for home and office too quickly.
As for portability Metricom showed promise before it folded, and when it folded it still did not provide sufficient coverage for me to consider it, or my company to consider it, at the price they were charging. It all boils down to the 3 C's of wireless. Coverage, capacity, and cost.
Coverage questions aside the practical benefit of mobile or portable wireless data connectivity for me is really somewhat dependent on whether I can access my corporate intranet securely.
I am rather confident that 1xEV-DV will be very widely deployed in the US. I am not sure about 1xEV-DO. Perhaps we'll see both. Perhaps I'll have a laptop with an embedded 1xEV-DO chip, or a 1xEV-DO chip modem card. Perhaps someday I'll be able to use it in Europe, EMEA, or Latin America. That would be nice wouldn't it?
<< Even some CDMA supporters are saying how U.S maybe the first in 3G surpassing Japan and Europe? >>
Do you mean the Forbes duo of Gilder & Seybold & Ira Brodsky - all of whom I am a fan of?
<< I'm not here on the Nokia thread to search up anything for thee Ok? So, what's the point, err pattern? >>
The point, or pattern, is that when I'm on the Nokia thread I have my Nokia hat on, not my Qualcomm hat.
Do you understand my point? <g>
Best,
- Eric - |
