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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (48987)	7/10/2001 9:16:03 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Robert..... All your reasons for LTB&H are nicely stated and I have no significant disagreement with any of them. The viewpoint problem that I have is this.... every major and minor company is announcing lowered guidance and no end of the bottom in sight. Some companies have lowered guidance twice within the quarter. Morgan was on CNBC and gave no indication that things were going to get a whole lot better. So if the outlooks are still deteriorating where's the reversal going to start from? There should be some signs of new buying of equipment, but where is it? Remember that when Morgan was on conference calls a year ago he was always talking about the three drivers for the industry. Well Telecom which was one of his drivers just had a bad accident and will not be driving for a while. The other drivers (300mm and smaller line sizes) were forced into using up unused vacation time. So for now there is no driver. (call a taxi). I'm a strong believer in this industry but I need to figure out a hedge that will cover my downside. Brian and the younger posters here have a real time advantage. I don't want any investment that has got a longer expiration date on it, than the beer in my fridge. (How's that for a plan). Regards, Jerome