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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (13530)	7/11/2001 3:26:48 PM
From: John Hayman	Respond to of 34857

True.......go NOK!!! But....I think NOK has a ways to go down yet. But, maybe everyone does eh? My guess is 12-14. Then there is the future....here come the Asians! Profit margins? Anyway, lets cheer for NOK now, even if it is for selfish reasons. John

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (13530)	7/11/2001 3:35:18 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 34857

AL, since Nokia's share of CDMA is very low and the lower GSM sales are not QUALCOMM's problem and CDMA sales are fine [no change from lowered guidance by Q! a month or two ago] why should Qheads care if GSM, analogue, TDMA and PHS sales bite the dust? We expect GSM sales to decline relative to the ever-growing CDMA world. GSM is legacy. CDMA is the new game in town. CDMA has a future. GSM has a past. [Yes, I know GSM sales will continue to grow based on the legacy advantages for a while yet]. I don't care much what happens to Nokia. They are nice to have in the CDMA business, but not essential and might make very little difference to Q!'s bottom line [though they are certainly helping CDMA sales at present with their CDMA market share, which is small, but worthwhile]. My preference remains for W-CDMA to be ditched. I'm not into economic waste even if I get a temporary advantage. Gregg Powers liked the W-CDMA idea as it would be a barrier to entry and raise the royalty rates due to higher wholesale prices of complex handsets in a fragmented market. I prefer really cheap, lower royalties per phone and everyone in the world gets a cdma2000 phone in 2 years. That's my Globalstar model too! 3G video in cdma2000 is now running in Korea and people can buy it. GPRS and VW40 are struggling to function. It's not a casual bashing I give Nokia. As you can see from their share price, there are serious concerns [apart from the general decline due to overhyped expectations a year ago across the Nasdaq and especially the wireless sector]. Nokia has got themselves in a problem. They have got a very small market share in CDMA compared with GSM and as CDMA grows, that could shrink further unless they can transfer their brand and develop some hot-stuff technology to bundle into CDMA. So far they have failed and are having to buy ASICs instead of making their own. They seem to be losing rather than gaining ground in ASICs and CDMA development. Nokia sux does NOT mean so does the entire sector [though it does in the GSM sector]. There is some great deductive, inductive, conductive and productive reasoning for you! Mq

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (13530)	7/11/2001 3:35:51 PM
From: mightylakers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

A.L. the harmony, or lack of, between Q and N reminds me of the dispute between Shaq and Kobe, or maybe Phil and Kobe? Anyway you get the point. All of them have game, all of them are important, but if they don't settle their difference then the team is going no where and end up with finger pointing. Yes Lakers found the cure. Blazers didn't and ended up in flame. Bottom line, they should work out a better way and throw their egos aside, just like Kobe made the move. Someone in this game got to do that too.

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (13530)	7/11/2001 3:38:07 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

If the Qheads who post on SI tiresomely bashing Nokia actually had any deductive reasoning skills versus kneejerk reactions, they'd now be rooting hard for the Nokians to deploy WCDMA ASAP. Actually, there are several theories on that. Let's say the lying sacks of shit at Nokia can't even deliver GPRS, then the world may seriously doubt Nokia's capability and claims regarding WCDMA. Which means, there is a chance, albeit small, that the world blows of the vaporware of WCDMA, moves to cdma2000 with working 3G systems (as opposed to moving to non working WCDMA systems). You see that there are lots of folks, including myself that seriously doubt Nokia can make WCDMA work. So the sooner WCDMA is blown off- the sooner 3G systems get built with cdma2000. Thus Qualcomm does better with no WCDMA launched, cdma2000 launched later by GSM crowd, than it would if WCDMA gets launched by the GSM crowd but doesn't work and the next 5 years are wasted on systems that don't result in WCDMA or CDMA handset sales. There is also the theory, that when it comes down to it, Qualcomm will save the day for the carriers that do choose WCDMA by actually making WCDMA chips and systems that work. Caxton

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (13530)	7/11/2001 3:47:01 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

I should add, Motorola, L M Ericsson, Nortel, Lucent, Siemens, Alcatel, Nokia used to be behemoths and people used to say that QUALCOMM would be trampled by the sheer size of these companies. Here are some market capitalisations: Motorola $33bn Ericsson $39bn Siemens $46bn [I think that's the right one] Lucent $20bn Nokia $82bn Nortel $25bn Alcatel $19bn QUALCOMM $42bn Notice that QUALCOMM is now bigger than all of them except Nokia, which is now only twice the size. [And Siemens which makes trucks or something as well and will soon be smaller anyway]. So, you can see that they should not be treated as a sector. Some do better than others and guess which one is doing best. In case anyone is naughty and tries to say the wrong answer, it is QUALCOMM. Mqurice