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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (4258)	7/12/2001 9:59:28 AM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Another gap to be sold??? Lets think about this: Msft news on Revenue is great...BUT being the smart players that they are, managed revenue is a well known game all the big guys play and rightfully so. The 2.6B negative....ahhh nevermind that.<GGG> The other big ?-mark is the XP cycle. From what I'm hearing the adoption is not going to be like past cycles, IMO. The positive you point out is the psychology...just don't drink the Kool-Aid :-) Daily wise I need a close above 43.75~ to get a buy sig today. I think trading range is still the ticket 45-39 QQQ. Hourlies are long on the gap up but not breaking the 42.75~ recent high and holding would be sorta negative...bwtfdik..

To: John Pitera who wrote (4258)	7/12/2001 10:07:02 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

The 30 Day Moving Average of the TRIN (Arms Index) is at a 53 year high, as reported by Joe Granville. It shows the cross currents in the current market. And the Argentinian markets are selling off again, short term rates are over 100% there...... a serious situation.

To: John Pitera who wrote (4258)	7/14/2001 8:37:05 AM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi, John - In the long, slow decline that began a year ago spring, the market has consistently underestimated the severity of the downturn. "...since the markets are ruled by psychology to good degree, that when the market wants to focus on the negative, it does, and it feeds on itself." I agree; but I think that the remnants of the boom psychology still inhabit the markets - witness the recent rally on news that pales in significance to the accumulating global negatives. Mrs. Peel's post of Stephen Roach's excellent synopsis puts things in perspective. For over a year, the technicals have given conflicting signals (depending, I guess, on who's reading them). Message 16074291 And still the market rallies; ruled by what psychology? The evidence might (might) support the conclusion that the old 60-month cycle, straightarmed by Mr. Greenspan for so long, is reasserting itself with a vengeance. In any case, it has long been a truism: as the US economy goes, so goes the world. It's anyone's guess as to what the ultimate effect devaluation of the US dollar would have in a global recession, but I think you have it right... "...the US imports a tremendous quantity of goods and a lower USD should cause price increases in things like Asian made clothes, shoes, electronics etc............." I also think a lower US dollar would prolong the global recession - by making it more difficult for others to export to the US, and simultaneously giving the Fed another dragon to slay: inflation. It's enough to make you wonder if central bank intervention makes any difference, in the end. >g< Regards, Jim