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Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (2444)	7/12/2001 3:38:38 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2850

Tim, Quick notes: Don't believe everything you read about overcapacity. There may be an imbalance today, but that goes away as broadband to the home is deployed. Further, much of the overcapacity is based on dark fiber on long haul routes. Last mile is a greenfield on the fiber side and it takes equipment to light up that fiber. Silver, I recommend inviting Zeev over to discuss silver.

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (2444)	7/12/2001 11:08:31 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2850

Hi Tim, Some thoughts on CMRC, and I'm referencing the Forbes 4-16-01 article for some of the numbers. It seems to me that the big 3 (F,GM, DCX) are going to double over the next 24- 36 months. And triple over the next 4-5 years. They are one of the most logical and powerful consortiums to benefit from B2B, I think it been ironic that F, GM and also DCX have not been called the conservative man's B2B play. They are trying to run 75 billion of carmakers purchases through Covisant this year after doing only 1 billion dollars of business in 2000. If they hit the 75 billion figure, which is doubtful in my opinion , it would still only represent 30% of their purchases. 1) they will be able to save 1500-3600$ per vehicle from the Covisant auction and procurement method. moving an additional 1.6 billion to the operating profit line (rough numbers) 2) since they own 30% of Covisant each (F, GM, DCX) they will be able to IPO Covisant and have an equity stake that could be worth a quarter, or a third of their market cap. ( this is a Q4 2002-2004 event) Maybe Half of their market cap 5 years out. ( I doubt they wait that long, but by the same measure they can retain ownership in Covisant) 3) F and Gm own 7.49 % of CMRC each for a total of 14.9%..... that should be another appreciating asset. 4) CMRC owns 2% of Covisant which builds cash flow for the it's shareholders, including F and GM. ... Now if we build in Mike's very insightful idea of treating F as a total return vehicle, by owning the stock, collecting the 4.8% dividend and also writing covered calls, it can be a very conservative way of generating +20% returns with what I have to consider to be very negligible risks. Obviously it can be played as more of a growth/capital appreciation/yield theme. that's my preference. John As a Footnote, I'm really believe that CMRC is a stock that can outperform going forward. I've suggested for the past year that CMRC was a stronger entity than ARBA