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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2445)7/12/2001 4:31:44 PM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2850
 
Hi Jorj or shouud I go by grubmaster.

I don't believe everything on the over capacity issue especially if its from an analyst but I also don't feel broad band to the home is the immediate answer. I go by the #'s where 80% of households make less than $60k / year. So its the other 20% who might be willing to initially pay for home broadband. With DSL @ $40 / month and cable @ $50 and the consumer debt I don't see this one being added to household expenses.

Not sure where the price point will be for the other 80% and part of what will drive prices lower is the over capacity. Problem is prices seem to have fallen quicker than companies ability to service debt and pay for capital equipment.

Carriers can be patient, at least for now. Even business will be cutting back in this environment. Now I do think the cable companies will do fine as they have the monopoly with only local cariers with dsl as competition.

I can be wrong and know I'm only signing the current theme. Would love to see some improvement.

To not be all doom and gloom I like the drop in energy prices and with the drop in rates and tax cut anticipate a decent 4th quarter and good early 2002. Not sure of the 3rd quarter and still worry about the consumer debt issue. Actually think China strength can help out global economy.

Tim