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To: Logain Ablar who wrote (2446)	7/15/2001 6:48:31 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 2850

Tim, A post by Frank Coluccio about the bandwidth glut. If you don't have Frank bookmarked, I recommend that you do. Message 16078896 Quite simply, the SPs will spend money if they believe that they can make money by doing so (or that they will lose money over the long term if they don't..i.e. market share). I believe that the current conditions are going to push us into a shortage situation in relation to the techs. I don't think that we are necessarily there yet. But where many are looking for an "L" bottom, I am beginning to believe that when the recovery happens, it will be quite dramatic because it will start from a position of shortage. As far as your example of $40/DSL, $60/Cable...you say that you don't see this one being added to household expenses (home broadband). I agree, this wouldn't be "added", it would be replacement. If you could get your broadcast entertainment (cable, satellite, local antenna), telephone and data connection over one connection with one bill, would that be compelling for you? Probably not unless there was some sort of cost savings. Where the savings comes in is that each of these services has a base cost associated with it that goes to the SP's fixed costs. If they have the opportunity to use the same infrastructure and combine their support infrastructure as well for all of these services, the SP has the opportunity to save on costs and pass that savings on to you. I think that we pay something like $75/month Cable, $65/month for DSL and then a decent chunk for phone (including long distance). I do believe that we will move away from metered voice and that it will be like cable and DSL where there is a fixed rate for the service. Probably a basic rate for local and then another premium rate for unlimited LD. Not everybody has tucked away their checkbook during this economic slowdown, there are SPs out there that are building out their infrastructure (specifically talking about cable cos) and I think that you will see the ILECs put in a position where they have to spend some cash or be squashed. Again, I don't think that this means that people should go out and panic buy stocks in the telecom industry, just that there are things that I am seeing that will force spending in the sector.