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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DOUG H who wrote (38981)	7/14/2001 3:13:44 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 65232

Dougy Sanders, I think it will be ENERGY we have begun to witness the birth pangs of the Era of Shortage rolling blackouts, even blackouts during baseball games, $35/bbl oil, $2/gal gasoline, doubled electric bills, tripled natural gas bills, $1000/yr water bills I expect the next 3 years to be highlighted by weird new forces and weird new dynamics and openly discussed hatred of Arabs and Oil Barons and considerable internal squabbling e.g. planned seizure of electric producer windfall profits soon I expect to hear of massive governmental energy programs I dont mean subsidies to the poor I mean massive multi$B research grants, partnerships, gauranteed sales, tax breaks to businesses and residences, utility sponsored conversions, etc the works !!! the theme will be Energy Indpendence and Progress into New Millennium the national effort will unleash huge innovation forces and create new wealth by 2015, the Arabs and OPEC will me muted they can go back to their marble-studded cities in the desert and observe them as museum pieces if not 2015, then 2020 for absolute certain hybrid cars, fuel cells in business, renewable energy (solar panels, cool batteries, windmills, ocean wave generators), exploration on govt lands, relaxation of envmtal standards, tax incentives for production you name it, we will push it ANYTHING TO GET AWAY FROM THE $40 BARREL OF OIL the national program is so certain in my mind by 2003 and the rolling blackouts that I expect will worsen, not improve, and soon complacency is an American Spoiled Brat trait we can talk about technology overcoming demand about how it will circumvent inflation but I think we are gonna fight a losing battle and inflation will rise to baseline 4-6% by 2003 when the next economic expansion phase takes hold and higher energy costs are passed along everywhere heck, I just read in Pitt how Chili's the restaurant now charges 50 cents per order for energy surcharge that is a new tactic that could become widespread quickly I also expect the next expansion to see the major world economies UNLOCKED from the Y2K unison maestro conductor wand to have at least one continent out of synch will actually serve beneficially soon it will be interesting to watch the rich & poor clash and the new & old technology clash and the established & subsidized clash just imagine $40/bbl oil, it is coming and high profile blackouts, it is coming worse the new themes in the next 9-18 months imho: DEBT, ENERGY we have heard only half of the debt story it will be a colossal ball & chain in the recovery from both vendor and consumer perspective another year before that debt diarrhea is discharged and then only partially / jim