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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (80210)	7/14/2001 8:26:08 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Mish, I was bearish after the 7/2 top and was looking hard for a top within the 7/5 FM timeframe +/- two trading sessions (7/4 was a holiday). As the market was closing 7/11, I was aware and made note of the doji or better candlestick being formed on the compx and that I thought it was bullish (you can check the Dr. Bob thread). On this thread, I made this post on Wednes: Message 16061361 <Anyway, got my bull horns back on for now....off with the bear suit (too darn hot in there anyway) <g> > Additionally, I posted this directly to you answering your post to me: Message 16065536 Clearly, I am in the bull camp now and have been since right before the close on Wednesday. If you noticed my conversation with "Capitalist", then you are also aware of the argument or thought behind the observation and change in stance. Namely the earnings warning game lowering the bar of expectation followed by the earnings meeting/beating game. I have read your posts on several threads and understand you are tired of the whipsaw market environment and are now clinging to your bearish position. I have no beef with your conclusion or opinion, in fact I share your fundamental concerns. But I have been very consistent in my approach of changing my own stance in concert with the ever-changing twists and turns of the market. In other words, I am a bear when the market is going down. I am a bull when the market is going up. While many might be frustrated with this shifting to and fro and may even criticize that this behavior is in essence inconsistent...I feel I have been making my case clear and will not be a slave to the "viewpoint", rather, I will make the viewpoint slave to the market direction. I think my shifts have been quite timely and accurate. While I can completely understand incredulity and perhaps the silent rooting by bystanders to fall flat on my face, I challenge anyone to go through my posts and show me the bad calls I have made regarding bull/bear posture. Yes, I do make some foolish postulations partly in fun such as predicting "continuation gap" and such, but as far as my market calls...they have been in tune with the market. Much of my success has to do with chart reading and not a small portion either has to do with staying on top of certain favorite posters and other posts which I may consider sentiment indications. JT's work on the MITA thread is definitely on my list of information I respect and find of great value. I also respect Zeev, this is the second time recently we are in disagreement. I do not worry too much anymore when I am in disagreement with posters whom I respect as well. Everyone follows their own stuff and I have found that my stuff is working as well as I could ever hope for. No way do I put down Zeev and in no way am I telling you that you are all wet with your position. I will be a bull and I will focus on the bullish argument until inevitably, the market reverses and heads back down. I fully expect to turn with the market in timely fashion and will not sulk or fall apart when eventually at some point I have blown it. NV says everybody blows it at some point. It is true I am on a hot streak, eventually the odds would support I will mis-step. Until then, if it ain't broke, I ain't fixin' it...ggg I am sensing some silent hostility towards me out there, I will state here now that while I enjoy posting and my unorthodox humor which may put off some, my motivation is not to satisfy a bloated ego, but rather to contribute and share information and perspective in what I think is the most complicated and difficult game I have ever attempted to fathom. We may find that everything you said is right and to the point. It is my opinion that the market and charts will tell me when we turn back down, and when they do, then so will I. Whether that be Monday, whenever. Contrary to what some may think, my musings are largely reactive to the market with minor anticipations. The market tells me, not the other way around. I really do not have a crystal ball, I really cannot predict the future. With all due respect, regards, Eichler

To: mishedlo who wrote (80210)	7/15/2001 12:36:49 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

One manipulated gap up does not a rally make>>>> dood, the time to be xsesivily bearish, when everybody is excessive bullish, over the last several days i read pervasive pessimism, crashes, melts and dives, on the threads. the gap not only held but the market ran from the gap, that is bullish in my book. in the la times business section this weekend, 4 of the 5 headline stories are as follows, "Falling Fuel Costs No Fix for the Economy", US - Mexico Bank Fizzling, "Emerging Markets Drag Investors Back into Hole", "Crisis of Interconnected Economies", two of these are from regular columnists that are usually pretty upbeat -g- this all jives with rydex levels, while i believe we could have a set-back monday or tuesday, i believe 1200 spx will provide support, and this rally will end up taking the dow back to at least 11,000, but then i could be wrong and the crowd (and cramer) maybe right --ggg---