LG,
In this country, we are presumed innocent until proven guilty. I find it somewhat annoying that I am being challenged to prove my innocence (good calls) as opposed to the opposite. I feel obligated to comply as a refusal or ignoring would imply that I am full of chit. Seeing no reasonable solution, reluctantly, I have spent the last several hours putting the following together.
When I challenged to point out bad calls, little did I suspect I would be in turn challenged to show how my calls were indeed good as I claimed. I never anticipated this type of event and did not save or bookmark posts I made anticipating this. I thought that perhaps this would not be too difficult as I could click my profile, and go through all my posts. Apparently, to my surprise, 7/11 is as far back as that avenue went...looks like maybe I'm posting way too much. I had to go back through the threads where I prefer to hang out and pick out the posts in that manner. Do you have any idea how much work that entails? I've just spent the last several hours (IMO wasting time supporting what I am already aware of) recreating a trail of calls to support my claim. As there was no way I could go through the ten or so threads I know I have posted on, I decided to focus on MDD and Ask Dr. Bob, my two favorites. As a result, there may be additional support I just do not have the time to backtrack. Anyway, here is a list of links and quotes going from most recent back in time chronologically.
I believe I make my case clear enough to indicate which way I was leaning and when.....
7/11 Wednes.- Bull horns back on
After the close 7/11
Message 16061361
"Anyway, got my bull horns back on for now....off with the bear suit (too darn hot in there anyway) <g>"
Message 16060157
Hours before the close 7/11
"I think we are set for rally mode now. Got an early signal on the 60 min compx (5e8s MA crossover).
Biggest factor to me will be IF we hold the current gains for today. Candle on the daily would be positive, a hammer I believe and should indicate a reversal."
***********
7/3 Tues. - Bears will rule next several trading sessions
Message 16026350
Expectation:
"In short, I think the bears will rule for the next several trading sessions."
This quote estimates next turn date Wed 7/11-7/13, more than a week prior to the event.
"Looks very much to me that is where compx is headed next
and given the periods between highs and lows of late, I would estimate the next low mid to late next week."
***************************
6/20 Wednes - Downside done for current round
Message 15971519
"Well, as bearish as I have been lately, I'm seeing the daily compx chart stochastics rounding the bottom and appear to be turning up with 4 solid days holding the line at support of
50% retrace. I would now be turning more positive, looking for perhaps some positive movement in the better quality name stocks. The pennies still are behaving like losers. I don't
think the downside is finished, only done for this current round of action."
***********
Wednes 6/6 - Why I am currently bearish
Message 15905675
" Getting back to the market itself, in particular the $compx chart..I would like to make a couple of observations at this point. On 5/21-23,the comp printed an Evening Star candlestick pattern, a bearish development.5/25, 29, 30 saw
a decline on rising volume (an indication the down move is
for real) and then 5/31-6/4 saw a bounce on decreasing volume
(a clue there is NO conviction behind the move). 6/5 was a strong volume day, which often denotes a top. Observe how the strong volume days of 4/11, 4/18, 5/2, 5/22 accurately
called the tops in the entire rally from 4/4 to present. It might also be too early to say, but a case can be made for
a head and shoulders pattern with 4/19-5/15 the left shoulder, 5/16-5/30 the head, and 5/31 to present the early
formation of the right shoulder. If this pattern is true, lower prices are ahead."
"I wanted to explain why I am currently bearish regarding the market, and why. It is my interpretation of TA"
***************
Sat 6/2 - more rally next week, then pull the plug
Message 15885410
"recent activity "having put in the bottom" should have drawn back into the market cautious money and more rally next week will easily fuel more greed.Perfect timing to pull the plug
and "surprise" the masses."
*********
5/30 Wednes. Another trip to test the upper ST Channel
Message 15869725
"Bottom line, if we break the 2150-2130 much to the downside,
that should effectively signal retracement time for the comp.
This mornings action will be key. Otherwise, another trip to test the upper short term channel would be in order."
*************
5/29 Tues - Not expecting tank job, yet
Message 15864899
"Good sign that the market hasn't gone into "tank" mode,
so far. Also, an important note is that the $compx
"sell-off" for the last several trading sessions is on declining volume, a big tip off that this is consolidation
(so far) as opposed to some big down turn. Just my humble opinion...."
********
Could not find an actual call for the top 5/22...here's why..
5/19....
Message 15824133
"Anyway, I decided I was wasting way too much time worrying about whether the market in general is going up or down.
Decided to forget about that for now and just play the breakout game which looks to be raging in full force."
After this statment, I refrained from commenting on the compx until the last link of 5/29...
*******
Also from 5/29
Message 15824315
"Great stuff happening from the long side right now."
"Don't know how long the current rally will last but I am no longer going to concern myself with that. Going to play my
cheapie stock break-out game for all it's worth while the getting is good..."
*******
5/16 - Wednes - rally is on
Message 15811106
"the rally is on."
Also from 5/16
Message 15809810
"The key to me at this point is the vastly improved look of the daily chart with indicators turning back up from the lower ranges and room to run higher."
**********
5/7 - Mon -
Message 15765208
"looks like imminent roll-over to me."
********
5/3 - Thurs - question remains far down
Message 15751245
"Either way, the writing is on the wall. All three indexes sport rising wedges, with only one possible conclusion.
Dow and SnP have broken their wedges. The question to me remains how far down? Fib retracements are the obvious targets."
*********
5/3 also...
Message 15749245
"crossover signal (5e8s ma) on the 60 minute chart, pretty reliable. Stochastics, adx signal agree. Went to cash, first thing this a.m.If I was really, really sharp at present,I would have found something to short late yesterday. Still, cash and up 25% for the week is not too horrible."
**************
5/2 - Wednes - on the alert for turn down
Message 15745493
"Keep on the alert for the next down leg"
************
5/2- Wednes. -
Message 15743782
"Notice that the rising wedges I pointed out yesterday on the dow and SnP have both broke (inevitably) to the downside."
**********
Before this...it appears that my first post on this thread since my long absence due to having pulled out of the market after the January rally was on 4/28. My first observations of market direction started again the beginning of May.
The market bottomed 4/4. I was not following at the time.
On 4/7, I experienced my own bottom, diving off a 14' loft landing on my face and head, nearly dying as a result. In the weeks that followed, I re-activated my trading account and started posting again near the end of April.
*****
This was not a very productive endeavor IMO (I think checking charts and reading NEW posts would have been time better spent) and it will be the last time I engage in this activity. If it becomes necessary to prove myself on a regular basis going forward, I will stop posting altogether.
This was not nearly worth the trouble.
Best regards,
Eichler |
