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To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (128360)	7/15/2001 10:57:27 AM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 164684

<<The reason that I think a rally is possible over the next few weeks is that the earnings reports will sound better than the earnings warnings of the past month. >> I agree, based on revieiwng charts from the same period of time 3 mos ago. It looks like we're in a very similar st trend

To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (128360)	7/15/2001 5:54:19 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Cat: Both oil prices and interest rates helped slow the economy. And IMO rates went up more to burst the stock price bubble than due to economic growth or inflation - and that is largely behind us. But I am not of the belief that rate cuts, even combined with lower oil prices, will lead us out of the woods as hoped. The market is priced for a healthy snap-back of the economy. Failing that, stock prices seem more likely to drift downward as prospects become more realistic and valuations are seen for what they are -- too high for a slower-growth economy. The slowly rising tide of unemployment does not have any reason to turn back down -- and indeed is likely to rise month after month after month as far forward as we can see. This will undermine consumer confidence - a pillar of the economy which alone has kept us out of recession.