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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7918)	7/17/2001 12:09:31 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

I have to say that today's sentiment is quite entertaining. Everybody wants to make a big deal on even the slightest negative comments, when such are not crucial. This is classic 'not being able to see the forest when in the trees' thinking.... SEBL, VRTS, MERQ and others will all likely drop numbers for 2H01... but when you crunch the numbers you realize that these are fine-tuning and not large, meaningful moves given the state of business/IT spending. SEBL's estimate for this year is $.58... I would say that will prove to be a few pennies high, maybe as much as a nickel. VRTS and MERQ will very likely drop full year estimates 5% or slightly more as well. However, who cares about a few pennies when we are talking about recession year numbers? Everyone knows that business spending sucks and that companies have to break their neck to make numbers they 'conservatively' set 90 days ago. Now they try again to set numbers for next quarter and given the state of Europe and summertime and sentiment, nobody can justify aggressive estimates. There is no V in the business sector economy yet. However, we are no longer on the left side of the U either. As an economist told me recently, U's always feel like L's when you are in the middle of it. If Q4 sucks, that will be news and the NASDAQ will probably need to test or go through its April lows between now and year end. However, I would think there is very little price risk at this point as unless you take numbers down by an order of magnitude, stocks like VRTS and MERQ already (over) discount numbers that will be fine-tuned down. hopefulthatITbudgetsaren'tgoingtozeroandthatNotNeiderhofferstartssupportingtechstocks...