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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (11772)	7/16/2001 12:07:07 PM
From: Chris	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

AMAT 11:52 ET Applied Materials (AMAT) 44.21 -2.15: -- Update -- Hearing street talk that the company's analyst meeting at Semicon West is not going well; one brokerage firm reportedly says that AMAT CFO now not as confident about a late 2001 recovery.

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (11772)	7/16/2001 12:21:57 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

>>My opinion is we're going lower, with the NYSE old economy giants leading the way.<< It looks that way to me too. Am not sure why, because until now, earnings have been holding up (relatively) well. I would take an NYSE-led sell-off as a sign that the whole enchilada is going to get worse (earnings, economy, etc.). Got the latest issue of Money last week, which I get mostly for general sentiment, and they were making some really reasonable picks for the first time in years. Made me worry if this whole thing was about to go down. They finally lost that tech stock mania, which means tech could be about to make a comeback, or everything else is doomed too. They were also pumping asset allocation, which makes me think inflation might be about to soar, so J6P can lose money on bonds too. ;-) >>In the Naz MSFT chart looks real bad- the infamous Megaphone formation. Same formation on the SOX is more advanced, and you can see the future movements in MSFT by looking at recent SOX action.<< MSFT sure is surprisingly weak for a company with so much "great" news lately. Great comments, Arik, as always.

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (11772)	7/16/2001 1:03:53 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Arik, >>>> This should go the other way, too: If the market fails to make a lower low this week, it will look to break higher. <<<< Setting a LOWER HIGH implies that the downtrend is intact, but of course as you mentioned, for the downtrend to continue it would need a LOWER LOW. However, if the forthcoming selloff does not set a LOWER LOW, that does not immediately imply that the trend is changing. It could just be a consolidation period where a bearish pattern like a rectangle/pennant/triangle/etc may form. So a LOWER HIGH implies that the downtrend is intact, but a HIGHER LOW doesnt neccessarily mean that the trend is changing. As for INDIA, they are doing well relatively, but keep in mind that they are still heavy commodity exporters rather than HiTECH exporters. >>>> Does the 3rd day has to be strong from morning? Cause today doesn't look that strong so far <<<<<< No it doesnt. It depends on the close, but for a successful 3-DAY pattern, DAY-3 should be similar to DAY-1. It dont look good. Yup, that sure does look like a MEGAPHONE on MSFT that will break to the downside. Thanks for pointing that out. seeya

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (11772)	7/16/2001 1:03:53 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 52237

Arik, >>>> This should go the other way, too: If the market fails to make a lower low this week, it will look to break higher. <<<< Setting a LOWER HIGH implies that the downtrend is intact, but of course as you mentioned, for the downtrend to continue it would need a LOWER LOW. However, if the forthcoming selloff does not set a LOWER LOW, that does not immediately imply that the trend is changing. It could just be a consolidation period where a bearish pattern like a rectangle/pennant/triangle/etc may form. So a LOWER HIGH implies that the downtrend is intact, but a HIGHER LOW doesnt neccessarily mean that the trend is changing. As for INDIA, they are doing well relatively, but keep in mind that they are still heavy commodity exporters rather than HiTECH exporters. >>>> Does the 3rd day has to be strong from morning? Cause today doesn't look that strong so far <<<<<< No it doesnt. It depends on the close, but for a successful 3-DAY pattern, DAY-3 should be similar to DAY-1. It dont look good. Yup, that sure does look like a MEGAPHONE on MSFT that will break to the downside. Thanks for pointing that out. seeya