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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (47994)	7/17/2001 1:39:29 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin, Re: <No Guarantee> Pravin -- I guarantee one thing -- the time value of the options is decreasing rapidly & will be at zero by Saturday. I guarantee a second thing -- The volatility of the options will decrease immediately after earnings announcement. I guarantee a third thing -- nobody expects the Spanish inquisition ;) tgptndr

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (47994)	7/17/2001 1:47:33 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Pravin: To be sure, no guarantees...Looks like we've got a "bad news or oversold" rally unfolding at the moment...Let's see how much stamina it has!

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (47994)	7/17/2001 1:56:34 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Parvin, Re: buying INTC puts A better idea might be to buy AMD puts. If INTC disappoints, AMD will drop with the market. If INTC matches expectations and gives strong guidance for Q3 everyone will assume Intel "won" the price war. So this is a lose-lose situation for AMD. OTOH, the stock has fallen that much in the last few days, it might just trade with the market. On INTC: I doubt the stock will fall on the earning news. Unless there is a dramatic earnings decline or reduced estimates for Q3, the street will cheer the news. I expect the stock to rise AH/tomorrow if they match estimates (or miss by only a penny or two) and reaffirm guidance (stronger second half). Andreas

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (47994)	7/17/2001 2:21:46 PM
From: Milan Shah	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

To those that are holding and/or today buying Intel puts, I just wanted to warn that there is no guarantee that Intel will drop after earnings. I strongly feel the same. There's just no way Intel could have held a special mid-quarter update and said what they did if there was going to be any chance that they were going to disappoint with numbers or message. One technique they could use is to stuff the channels this quarter, and not announce the write-off until late in Q3 warnings season. At that time, they could blame it on an especially weak back-to-school season that was in turn caused by an epidemic that caused the IQ level of the general populace to drop, in turn forcing an unusually large number of folks to drop out of school, or some reason similarly brilliant in its content. Another fact to consider is Microsoft's announcement that revenues will come in slightly higher than expected. This could partly be due to product mix (higher ASP products selling), but there has to be some stability in demand for this to happen. I think that when all is said and done, Intel won this battle - they used their massive cash position to successfully hurt AMD. Not saying that its a fatal wound, but you have to admit that AMD's momentum is cracking just a little. You have to agree that AMD execs must now be forced to atleast reexamine plans to allow for quarters with net negative cash flow. Perhaps they'll try to scale back some portion of their plan - clawhammer, sledgehammer, SOI, whatever - and that is exactly what Intel would have wanted them to do. Milan