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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (40521)	7/18/2001 12:40:17 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Respond to of 100058

stan - I really are an optimist and had a long work to do to even envision that we could be in a long term bear market. I even used the term "depression", K-cycles theories etc etc... longly discussed and documented on this thread. This view indeed needs another TA approach, and not everything is bearish. There are some individuel companies which already have shifted to the next paradigm: find them, you will win the price. Meanwhile, techs and PC revolution came to an end (end 1998). Can't help it. As long as the indexes will be significally weighted in those old economy tech stocks, they will tank. But this is just my opinion.

To: stan_hughes who wrote (40521)	7/18/2001 12:43:50 PM
From: FLACK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

stan, here's an interesting list of stats Daily new highs on the NYSE topped out at 631 on October 3, 1997. The advance-decline ratio for the NYSE topped out on April 3, 1998 at 13.00. The Value Line (geometric) Average topped out on April 22, 1998 at 508.39. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (index of cyclical stocks) topped out on May 10, 1999 at 619.09. The D-J Transportation Average topped out on May 12, 1999, at 3783.50. The D-J Industrial Average topped out on Jan. 14, 2000 at 11722.98. NYSE Margin accounts (the level) topped out in March at $278.5 billion. The Russell 2000 Average (lower priced stocks) topped out on March 9, 2000 at 606.12. The Nasdaq Composite topped out on March 10, 2000 at 5048.62 The Amex Index topped out March 23, 2000 at 1036.40. The Wilshire 5000 topped out on March 24, 2000 at 14751.64. The S&P topped out on March 24, 2000 at 1527.46. The NYSE Composite Average (all NYSE stocks) may have topped out on Sept 1, 2000, at 677.58. The D-J Utility Average topped out on December 26, 2000, at 416.11. The NYSE Financial Average (banks, S&Ls, brokers, loan companies) may have topped out on January 3, 2001 at 657.52.

To: stan_hughes who wrote (40521)	7/18/2001 12:56:04 PM
From: jpdunwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Stan, agree that market does not have to tank, though I think it is possible, maybe even probable. It is my preferred scenario, so we can move forward from there. Otherwise, I think we face a long period of time of treading water, as you suggested, for things to work themselves out. This is even less fun than a quick crushing blow. But indeed, the amount of money being thrown at this market, and the investor complacency and unshakeable belief that the market always goes up, argues for just that. But money is getting tighter, as debt is being pushed to the limit, and layoffs,slowing economy, and sinking stocks will create some worry so that people will start focusing on debt instead of investments. As you said, it could take some mysterious force to really roil the markets and have people abandon investments, but it's certainly not unimaginable. Worry is showing now, global economy is slowing, consumers and businesses are about tapped out from bad investments. In my opinion, most stocks are already priced for recovery and then some. Would not take too much to see Nasdaq 1000, S&P 800, and Dow 8000. But, who knows? JP