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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (12061)	7/18/2001 6:53:15 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

>>JPM missed earnings by 50% and went up today. << It was sitting on the bottom tine of a nice fork. (I haven't update the chart for today's action yet)..... marketswing.com Donald, you know I play both sides. I have put picks on our site but you also know I play conservatively in my posts and am uncomfortable doing so since the lurkers are unknowns in experience, styles, capital etc. I threw out MRK a few days back, SFA at 35 1/2 ( a clunker thus far although some nice spikes up the last few days), and a few others I can't think of off the top of my head. I also went slightly long last week before the big up Thursday but then switched back bearish when there was no follow through. My main problem with the market is valuations are still high. PE's didn't matter because earnings were growing so fast according to the talking heads, now those earnings are being exposed as vaporware and are declining even faster yet PE's are the same. Write downs are now rampant and yesterday we had one that wanted to write off almost 400% of their entire market cap. History books written about the current market will make the '29 books about the exuberance then look like a minor blip someday. The denial is absolutely unbelievable thus far. I saw some say that Greenspan's speech today was vague. If I have time, I will post it with some parts highlighted that are clear as a bell. Between his comments and those of Chairman Ferguson today, they basically said, things can still get a lot worse and that the street shouldn't believe that the FOMC can cure all ills by cutting rates. He clearly said business cycles still remain and when they go down, there isnt much anybody can do. He also said when things do get better, they won't even come close to what they were in the '95 to 2000 time frame and that the last bit of consumer driven strength that has been holding us up could unravel at any time. They are now admitting that unemployment rates could reach the 5 1/4% level next year. What are the PEs of the top 10 NDX stocks again? Quick answer before MSFT announces tomorrow because it will jump a whole bunch unles you are going to use Pro Forma in which case, make up any number you want, they do. -ggg- This next year unemployment rate is the exact time frame that the talking heads are now saying we will see a turn around. Just like they saw one in the second half of last year, then the first quarter this year, then the second, then the third and now next year. I will stop writing for a second so everyone can look at a chart and see where we have gone since these great predictions. Show me some bullish news and a fair valuation and I will get bullish! Until then, I will just trade the ripples and keep my crash puts as insurance. Good Luck, Lee