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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6055)	7/19/2001 6:37:34 PM
From: marek_wojna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Little bit of reality so we won't get confused with the few YET survivors like QCOM (only about 50% off its high) <<Mayer and most other economists are puzzled, to be sure, by surveys that suggest consumers are still confident about the economy, given that U.S. households’ net worth last month recorded its first year-over-year decline since 1945. How can people feel positive about the future, economists wonder, amid the continuing drumbeat of corporate layoffs and the raw fact that U.S. manufacturing employment has fallen to 17.8 million, a level not seen since 1965? Mayer blames the disconnect between reality and public perception in part on the media, which she contends has failed to report accurately on the troubles in the real economy. Personally I think that overstretched consumers are simply in denial -- and are continuing to charge and spend recklessly longer than in the past by force of habit. Also, it sort of makes sense that layoff victims might use their credit cards to buy stuff while they’re looking for work.>> Maurice, I'm reading your posts which are really good as you are one tough of the fighter and good writer. When I read your message comparing MONEY to electricity, one thing which struck me right away was lack of amperage. Let me compare information to voltage but almost nil amps. Useless because all it can carry is another information, bla, bla, blab. What is information worth without the subject which is amp.? You can have one billion volts and not being able to kill the fly, never mind the bear. Information now is just another cheap commodity, so I rather choose the heavy weight commodity.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6055)	7/19/2001 8:57:51 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, some observations … <<USA savings rate isn't that great … means they will work until they drop … can work … until they are 95>> … Maybe. More likely they will vote in politicians who will redistribute wealth via inflation and taxation. Majority rule is rarely benevolent. <<Retirement is a modern concept ... Many … don't really retire anyway … they'll stay there until they drop>> … Working by choice is freedom. Working by necessity is recipe for revolt. <<Margin debts are way down>> … Some of it, no doubt, now consolidated into home equity loans, like those trans-generation Japanese home mortgages that once supported their equity valuation. Relative personal savings/equity capital value between the US and Japan balance sheet and residential density may put US and Japanese real estate valuation on par footing. Balance sheet analysis in the context of future expected income statement may also put the US and Japan on par footing. I do not believe the average Japanese' personal balance sheet and ratios are weaker than the average J6P. We will have to wait and see. Chugs, Jay