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To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48494)	7/20/2001 12:46:24 PM
From: Yougang Xiao	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<<AMD/INTC lied about shipments>> Did Intel's number include CPU for Xbox?

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48494)	7/20/2001 12:49:06 PM
From: bacchus_ii	Respond to of 275872

RE:"Judging from Jerry's comment I think AMD stuffed the channel in June. Keep in mind that channel stuffing not necessarily prohibit record sales in the next quarter -- you just have to stuff the channel again. Of course from a long-term view this is a stupid sales strategy." Not sure it's a wrong strategy. It come a time OEM have SKU to dump, like we saw in the second half of Q2 where we could only see cheap Celeron PIII at low MHz on the shelves of all store. There where no room for AMD SKU. I rather see AMD doing it than Intel. Gottfried

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48494)	7/20/2001 1:04:40 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: So there are two possibilities: AMD went from having 1/3 to 1/2 of retail desktops to having 1/3 to 1/2 of retail desktops and 1/4 of retail notebooks. Those notebooks were on the shelves of retailers in early July which means they were sold to OEMs in June. AMD share is now running above 25% of the CPU market, up from 22% in Q1. (7.7 million of 30.4 million)

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48494)	7/20/2001 1:20:17 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Andreas: It is more likely that Intel lied that shipments equals sales. It claimed a higher market share at end of June. AMD stated that they sold half of their CPUs in June. For Intel to have higher share, they either 1) stuffed far more into the channel than AMD, 2) added CPUs that are not normally in the sales figures (XBOX), 3) separated shipping from equal to sales, or 4) lied about their share! I do not think Intel would out and out lie, since it would land them in very hot water with the regulators, so that options 4 and to a lesser extent 3 are not very probable. Option 2 causes trouble down the road because such a thing would effect apparent ASPs although the effect may not be obvious for a quarter or two. You are right that option 1 spells trouble for Intel especially in light of the planned cuts. I think that i845 has for the most part missed the back to the school rush. Chipsets shipping next month will not have time to make it into finished PCs in time for late August / Early September rush (Unless in your area school doesn't start then, it does here for both college and high school). It takes about two weeks to build boards, two weeks to build PCs, and one to two weeks to arrive at stores. Thus, anything for Back to School needs to be shipped this week or next at the latest for the major OEMs. DIY shops could shrink this by two weeks. Now nForce is different as it will be on motherboards sometime next month (if it stays on schedule). That allows it to reach production in three weeks and still make it into BTS. Similarly, end of October is the point for Christmas (since shipping to destination is needed or if you prefer, time to get it wrapped for presents and well hidden). OEMs need CPUs by November and DIYs by December. Chipsets need four weeks before that for inventory to build up. NForce and i845 will make it for Christmas. Pete

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48494)	7/20/2001 2:44:18 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Andreas, There is some pipeline, even for companies like Dell, and it is longer for Compaq and HP, so the shipments down 2% is not necessarily inconsistent with CPU sales increase during the same time period. You put the components in this pipeline and at a later time, the resulting PCs end up being bought by business and consumers. The increased shipments may just be an indication that the OEM expect Q3 to be higher than Q2, and they are ordering components based on this assumption. If the sales of final product (PCs) do increase in Q3, everything will be fine. If not, there will be a lot of inventory left, and the orders for the Christmas season will be slower, resulting in very bad Q3 for both AMD and Intel. Joe