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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (21073)	7/20/2001 5:24:24 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

If you are "Scared Shitless" you have no reason to fear for your shorts <VBG>. I think lots of people will be filling their shorts if we drop below 2000 and keep dropping. The big question is, do we stop at 1900, or keep going? That is a biggie, and I believe it depends on how quickly we arrive there. If we get there quick, we should bounce. If it is painfully slow (5-6 sessions), we may go below. I believe it depends (no pun intended) more on where the NDX lands.

To: orkrious who wrote (21073)	7/20/2001 6:46:14 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30051

We seem to disagree. I am of the opinion that this week's holding in the 2000-2078 area was simply a manipulation to satisfy the naked writers of options (the "big boys"). Many stocks, however have broken important patterns here (the quintet, all of them), MSFT , a bunch of semi-equip (some breaching 12 month lows recently) and many others. I think that there is excess bullishness. Les quoted on another thread that AAII is recording only 15% advisors bearish, now, I do not remember ever such a low number and this series is much older than the Rydex index being hailed as a strong bullish sentiment indicator. Add this to many other palling turnips such as poor breadth, paucity of expansion of new highs (despite getting a number of time close to that 2100 level). We have a narrowing trading range which I fear will resolve on the downside. Many bulls believe it will resolve up. Furthermore, I have a major cycle low either on August 3rd that could develop into a black Monday on August 6th. From here to there, do not see anything to get this market's hope higher. My stand is in congruence with my general stance that since late April, we have been in a massive distribution range, and that is quite a long period, if it resolves down, it will be a massive decline, if it resolves up, (namely, I am wrong and that period was a massive accumulation period), it will also be massive. I believe strongly that it will resolve down, and thus my heavy cash (74%) stance going into this weekend. Mind you, some of those core stocks keep making new highs (today it was AGM and SFD) Zeev

To: orkrious who wrote (21073)	7/20/2001 9:10:14 PM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Jay- its funny because you and I and alot of other shorts are all in the same boat.. If we do in fact get the markets to move the way Zeev has been speculating, I will be lucky to be positioned to take advantage because this whipsawing is sure humbling the best of us.. I stayed short MU and AMAT, but thats about it.. I have 5 or more stocks I wanted to short but I just cant pull the trigger.. everytime we start building momentum one way or the other it just surprises me and reverses.. What really has me worried is just how key levels are holding... I dont think in all the years ive been trading that I have seen such indecision.. Whats sorta funny is I want to see a decent selloff here/retest of the lows not so much to benefit my shorts, but rather to add long positions with 3-6 months horizon.. Im tired of being a perma bear.. I really am.. but from an FA point of view, I just dont believe the market has fuly priced in where we stand today.. I may be wrong, but thats been my stance for 6 months.. so far its made me very profitable this year so taking a risk at this point on the short side is all I have to work with : ) Incidentally- this is a great thread.. Im typically on the opposite side of most of the traders here but thats why I like it so much.. although id be lying if I said it dosnt burn me every time I see hot tuna or zeev going long ccmp : )