To: Paul Engel who wrote (139839 ) 7/21/2001 1:21:20 PM From: tcmay Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 186894 Making a prediction about PDAs and Tablet PCs. My contrarian view of PDAs as a market (Hint: I don't own or plan to own any Palm or Handspring stock...or even Compaq stock.) <<This is Wintel II - a repeat of the PC phenomenon. If the long-rumoured Palm appears with a StrongARM or XScale CPU, the game will be over and Intel will be declared the winner. >> Paul, I'm skeptical that the PDA market will continue to be this important. Better things are coming. As you know, I carry around a Visor Handspring with me everywhere. (For you others, I have a wallet case that combines a wallet with a Visor...very nice quality.) But Palm and Visor are both doing poorly. The newer and "off" brands like Cassiopeia, Sony Clio, Sharp Zaurus, etc. are mostly not catching fire in the way that would be needed for them to be successful. Fry's Electronics has them all, and there is great confusion and (apparently) little profit. The Compaq iPAQ _does_ seem to be doing well, but this may be due to its early stage. To cut to the chase: PDAs look to be turning into the modern equivalent of cheap calculators. Palm = Bowmar? And yet people want to have computing/storage capabilities with them at all times. I know I do. But they want a reasonably capable version of what they use in the office and at home. Then what's coming? What will people be willing to carry? "One word, Benjamin: tablets." I'll bet that the hot growth market in the "personal digital assistant space," to use the jargon, will be the long-awaited tablet PC (or tablet Mac, for some of us). Too big to fit in a purse or pocket, obviously, but probably OK for much of the use that PDAs actually get. The projected winner: A tablet PC that weighs less than a pound, with a stylus, virtual keyboard, even the stroke system of a PalmOS, and that runs _familiar_ apps. As we know, Microsoft is close to announcing such a product. Microsoft, Intel, others have shown prototypes. Some were even built years ago--Momenta, for example--but these were underpowered, heavy, lacked a color screen, and were failures. I'll bet that a thin, light, rugged tablet PC will drive out many of the current high-end PDAs. Low-end PDAs will likely be incorporated into cellphones even more so than now. Intel may do very well in both market niches, of course. Just some thoughts. Worth what you paid for it. --Tim May