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To: Mark L. who wrote (44767)	7/21/2001 11:27:43 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mark, It is virtually unimaginable that the S&P will grow by anywhere near 11% for the next 10-20 years. I'm confused. That was the S&P's average annual growth for decades prior to the 90s when it was much higher. Why is it so difficult to imagine that it can return to its norm over the next couple of decades? --Mike Buckley

To: Mark L. who wrote (44767)	7/22/2001 2:27:20 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 54805

it is virtually unimaginable that the S&P will grow by anywhere near 11% for the next 10-20 years. The assumptions involved in that are so completely unprecedented in US history and would involve such a tectonic shift in world investment, US public policy, monetary policy, and/or inflation that we might just as well figure that world economic growth will be fueled by an infusion of knowledge from some intergalactic visitors. great post! i think WEB would agree.

To: Mark L. who wrote (44767)	7/22/2001 10:46:28 AM
From: quartersawyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

net redemption of equities by the demographic bulge of baby boomers. That popular misconception is getting old. From Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist for Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown-- "The Baby Boomers are currently 35 to 54 years old. They account for 52% of personal income at this time, and perhaps as much as 65% by 2005. Older people tend to earn more than younger ones. There will be lots of older baby boomers by the end of the decade, when they will be 43 to 62 years old. The Baby Boom from 1946 through 1964 was followed by a Baby Bust as the birth rate fell through 1976, but since then the birth rate has rebounded. Since 1977, 96 million births ake the Baby Boomlet bigger than the Baby Boom.... The Baby Boomers'...kids will be entering the labor market over the rest of the decade...." The more positive view is not nonsense. Instead of "selling equities to pay for old age care", the "demographic bulge of Baby Boomers" and our kids can have (what will then be very popular) legislation introduced to improve the services and spread the costs. Domestic and global demands for this country's output will fund that, other rational efforts, and equity ownership as it changes hands.