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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (48613)	7/22/2001 1:11:00 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

July 22 - I'm no longer sure these lists mean much, so I stopped doing them. Certainly AMD was all but gone from advertising during much of Q2, yet they sold record units. So, though it may not mean much.... b=Best Buy c=Circuit City o=Office Depot Note that some details (flat screen monitor, amount of memory, better printer, etc) means the relative value of these systems is not completely reflected below. This list reflects other rebates, but not the $200 to $400 dollar one from AOL/Compuserve. bto means I added $100 to bto prices to reflect a shipping/inconvenience estimate. MSN means I subtracted $100 to reflect value of 1 year of Internet Desktops Brand Chip speed Monitor Disk Plus Printer Price eMachines Celeron 733 17 20 Yes $349b MSN eMachines Celeron 733 17 20 Yes $419c Compaq Celeron 800 15 20 Yes $449b MSN Compaq Celeron 800 15 20 Yes $549c Compaq Athlon 1000 17 40 RW Yes $849b MSN Compaq Athlon 1000 15 40 DVD RW Yes $949o Compaq Athlon 1200 17 40 DVD RW Yes $999b MSN Sony Athlon 1000 17 40 DVD RW Yes $1,129c HP Athlon 1200 17 60 DVD RW Yes $1,149b MSN Compaq Athlon 1200 17 40 DVD RW Yes $1,199o Compaq Athlon 1333 17 DDR 60 DVD RW Yes $1,299b MSN HP P4 1300 17 40 DVD RW Yes $1,399c HP Athlon 1400 17 40 DVD RW $1,479o Compaq P4 1600 17 40 DVD RW Yes $1,597b bto MSN Notebooks Brand Chip speed Monitor Disk Plus RAM Price Sony Duron 800 14.1 10 DVD 128 $999b MSN Toshiba Celeron 800 13.3 15 DVD 128 $1,199o Toshiba PIII 800 14.1 15 DVD 128 $1,399b MSN Toshiba PIII 800 14.1 15 DVD 128 $1,399c Toshiba PIII 800 15 20 DVD 128 $1,549c Compaq Athlon4 900 14.1 15 CDRW 128 $1,469c Compaq Athlon4 1000 14.1 20 DVD CDRW 128 $1,599b MSN Compaq PIII 850 14.1 20 DVD CDRW 192 $1,699c Sony PIII 800 15 20 DVD CDRW 128 $1,899c Compaq PIII 1000 15 10 DVD CDRW 128 $1,999b bto MSN It looks to me like someone at AMD figured out that there wasn't much point in making a Duron 850 at Austin and selling it for $40 when they could make an Athlon 1000 and sell it for $70 instead. It's also easy to see that many parents would be happy to send their kid off to school with that Sony AMD Duron notebook - 14.1" screen and DVD player for about $1,000 - $400 less than the same speed PIII. How many of these things get busted or stolen anyway?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (48613)	7/22/2001 1:29:56 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: They want to build a new fab? Gotta borrow LOTS of money Why in the world would they want to build a new FAB any time soon? They are bringing a copper/SOI/.09 capable FAB online in 6 months - 2 years ahead of Intel. AMD doesn't need a new FAB for 4 years (when Intel is bringing on line whatever follows SOI, AMD will have to be there too.) As McMannis has pointed out, while MHZ sold, GHZ doesn't seem to be doing nearly as much good in the market. Last quarter, Intel differentiated itself with mobile chips and lower power PIIIs better suited to cubicles than was Athlon. Going forward, AMD is in the mobile market and the SFF Athlons are easier to package than P4s. AMD will be happy to provide you with a CPU that is as fast as anything out there for an ASP of $75. Intel starves if it doesn't get $150. The market just hasn't been willing to pay the premium for barely differentiated CPUs the way it once did. Unless and until that changes, AMD's business plan is better suited to such a market than is Intel's.

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (48613)	7/22/2001 1:50:21 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 275872

re: "I think it can go even lower than that. $10 is $20 presplit, and back in 1998 and 1999 the stock went down to $13 - $15 presplit They want to build a new fab? Gotta borrow LOTS of money. Some people said AMD's long term debt went down recently, but it is gonna go back up significantly when they borrow money to get a new fab started. And with HUGE losses coming, their S&P debt rating may be lowered, further raising the cost to borrow money to build a new fab. Their cash will slowly wither away as they give away, err, "sell" DUDon for $30, losing money further weakening AMD's balance sheet." Excellent points. AMD seems to have shot its wad - and the remaining chambers are empty.

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (48613)	7/22/2001 1:51:31 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: "I'll tell you one thing, it sure is nice watching AMD fall into another black hole and not being a part of it for a change. I used to be like some on this thread, in denial and thinking AMD may be able to pull through somehow when it is clear to a non-Droid that bad times are coming. But, hey, a $500 share price is just around the corner! " Congratulations on your education and transformation. Paul

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (48613)	7/22/2001 2:15:07 PM
From: kapkan4u	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

I am out of the stock too, but I think that you are full of it. You are falling into the most common trap investors fall in: confusing the past with the future. You have been around AMD long enough to know that AMD of today is drastically different from AMD of spring of 1999. I don't blame you. The great majority of investors are incapable of separating emotions driven by short-term stock swings from fundamentals. So they buy high, sell low and miss opportunities of their lifetime. Kap

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (48613)	7/22/2001 3:14:36 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Cirruslvr, I think you are way of the mark. AMD's fall is not company specific and is more due to the flash market. I am actually a bit amazed that it took so long for the stock price to come down. Business conditions are awful, there is no sugar coating this. AMD's intellectual property and know how, combined with their financial assets and market position is a far cry to how things were couple of years ago. I still plan to wait it out and see how the overall global economy shapes up, but if your views are any indication for the overall market, now is a good time for another sharp percentage ride up on AMD. I think I will wait till the last shoe drops out of INTC. They cook the books with the tax rate, guide lower even based on the bogus assumption that windows XP will save the second half, ASP and margins are falling and the PE is sky high. Mani

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (48613)	7/22/2001 6:07:02 PM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

pcworld.com "AMD's new CPU raises the performance bar even higher than the Athlon 1.2-GHz processor did in our February 2001 chart. MicronPC's Millennia Max XP2 and Hewlett-Packard's Pavilion 9800, each equipped with a 1.33-GHz AMD Athlon processor, easily outdistanced Gateway's Performance 1700--the only PC on the chart with Intel's 1.7-GHz Pentium 4" You know- it's funny that since the time coppermine was introduced, INTC and supporters have been claiming that the next release of xxx from INTC will just kill AMD. First it was the spigot on the 1GHz Coppermines that were supposed to flood the market- "any time now". Never happened. These days coppermine is a full 40% shy of Athlon- in clock speed- more in performance. Then the Pentium 4 was supposed to gallop out of the stables and crush the Athlon under it's hoofs. It's been more than 9 months since it galloped out and 9 out of the 15 PC's on the above linked chart- including the #1 performance one are still are AMD's! Then P4 was going to 2GHz on 0.18 around the start of the year. This claim was made right when the P4 was supposed to be introduced at 1.6Hz at launch. Never happened. 2.0 GHz may still happen, but it may be like the 0.18 1.13GHz Coppermine- probably best for INTC if it does not. Then remember the copper contamination problems that were supposed to kill Dresden? I guess Cu does not contaminate Si any more in this century. And again, all this hoopla that you are siteing is "out in the future"- as Niceguy would put it. In the here and now, all Intel has going is a 1.3GHz retail P4. I wonder why the 1.7GHz are a no show on the retail displays (not BTO)? The admission from INTC that they will now focus on transitioning their entire processor line from the PIII to the P4 is a huge admission that they are no longer competitive on their mainstream chips. In case anyone forgets- the P4 is still (around) 2million units and the P3 cores (inc celeron) are >25 million units/Q! and INTC is going to convert form P3 to P4 in a few weeks? ok months?! Phooy! Plus, don't forget that the sooner INTC converts from p3 to p4 on their main stream lines, the quicker they cut their mfg capacity in half. As Jerry said in the conference call. This p3 to p4 transition is probably the worst return on incremental investment any company has ever seen. The market is week for sure, but AMD is not in the same position it was in the K6 days. The Athlon is no K6. It is no pushover. TG