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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48630)	7/22/2001 4:38:46 PM
From: Elmer	Respond to of 275872

But in the clock-speed race they are even more behind (30% and more) than in those days. Worse: The current processor architecture has run out of steam (only a 40% clock-speed increase in 16 months) and there's no savior on the horizon for at least another year. There's room for even the lost and down trodden over on the Intel thread. EP

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48630)	7/22/2001 5:14:59 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: Okay, the cash balance is better and they have a brand-new fab. But in the clock-speed race... They're also ahead in the performance race. And having a Billion dollars in hand as well as a brand new FAB more advanced than any of Intel's FABs is a pretty significant difference. What will you think if on July 25 AMD announces that, since P4 only decodes an instruction every other clock, and that since it has only 2/3's the number of execution units Palomino has, that Palomino will be labeled and marketed accordingly. The desktop Athlon 4 2.1GHZ (1.5 * 1.4GHZ) goes on sale in September, and the Athlon 4 2.25GHZ (1.5 * 1.5GHZ) will be released in October. A number of industry benchmarks will be presented to confirm the accuracy of that rating. It will be reiterated that a 1.6GHZ P4 decodes instructions at a rate of 800MHZ. It will be further pointed out that some of the execution units in Athlon 4 cascade 3 or 4 flip-flops per cycle - meaning they are running at 3 or 4 times nominal clock speed and double the new speed rating. It will be pointed out that parts of the new 2.1GHZ Athlon 4 run at 4.2GHZ internally. It will also be announced that a 2.6GHZ chip will be released (1.5 * 1.73) in early Q1 of next year. A tiny bit of marketing is all it would take... Is AMD up to the occasion?

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48630)	7/22/2001 6:30:30 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 275872

RE:"Worse: The current processor architecture has run out of steam (only a 40% clock-speed increase in 16 months) and there's no savior on the horizon for at least another year. Unless there's an economic upturn or a change in management (strategy) I expect AMD to lose tons of money beginning this quarter." Not quite yet but where is the "hammer"?...that delay has put AMD in the same Mhz situation they were when all they had was the K6-2. Mind you, they are stronger now but still trail in MHhz to the P4... Jim

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48630)	7/22/2001 7:58:12 PM
From: kapkan4u	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

<What's so different this time? > The short answer is everything. They now have a more efficient CPU architecture, a better manufacturing process, a stable platform and a cheaper platform cost structure all of which were missing in the k6-2 days. Add to this a better cash position, easy transition to 130 nm and SOI and one can only wonder what have you guys been smoking lately. There is nothing like a plummeting stock price to confuse the heck out of a bunch of AMD investors. Which is understandable, considering the sordid past. Kap

To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48630)	7/23/2001 3:49:45 PM
From: fyodor_	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Andreas: What's so different this time? &#133 in the clock-speed race they are even more behind (30% and more) than in those days. Worse: The current processor architecture has run out of steam (only a 40% clock-speed increase in 16 months) and there's no savior on the horizon for at least another year. Better: - Absolute performance. May not count much, unless AMD can do something to actually market it. - Shrink 6 months away. - Just now gaining significant mobile market share. - Just now entering the server market. 3 and 4 will prop up ASPs, although probably not enough to prevent them from falling - esp. in Q4. The bulk .13&#181 shrink will enable AMD to keep ASPs reasonably stable, maybe even increasing them if the global economy rises, until SOI arrives. Additionally, there's the chance that AMD could buy some .13&#181 SOI capacity from IBM as early as Q1 (Dale seems to believe this, I wouldn't count on it, though). -fyo