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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sweet Ol who wrote (92684)	7/23/2001 11:19:16 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

John, barring a major change in consumer behavior or a major and sudden change in the climate, what really counts in terms of oil prices is what OPEC does. The latest news this morning is that OPEC wants to adjust its quotas to bring the price of crude back to about $26 or $27 a barrel. With OPEC in charge and demonstrating that its members have, in fact, enough discipline to maintain higher prices through production cutbacks, I don't see the down trend you mention. If I thought that consumers could suddenly curtail their use of energy, particularly by changing work habits to allow more work done in the home, or some such major change, then I would agree with you that we could see energy demand leveling off. The one thing that Simmons says that I completely agree with is that demand exceeds supply (at current prices). It is also true that the current economic slump (not a recession, but a slump, nevertheless) results in less production and therefore less energy use in the commercial and industrial sectors. You may choose to call this a downturn, causing energy use and prices to be cyclical. I think it is a mere blip and that overall demand continues unabated. Art