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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (841)	7/23/2001 7:15:50 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95594

RE: "Still the BtB was at the high end of expectations signaling a turnaround." No, the BtB doesn't signal anything, this time. It is a ratio of two falling numbers with revenues falling at a faster rate than bookings. This is not surprising because bookings have fallen ~77% off their high and the rate is due to slow and, as backlog is used up, revenues fall to the level of the bookings. The question is how long will bookings stay at the $700M level? AMAT threatened that it might fall to lower levels if technology purchases start to get pushed out. The current consensus is that the level might stick around until H2 2002 or Q1 2003. A dismal thought.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (841)	7/23/2001 8:33:57 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95594

<<Still the BtB was at the high end of expectations signaling a turnaround >> Whether this Btb signals a turnaround is best left to Father Time. The fact is the rate of declining bookings has slowed a lot and that is good. In fact, the level of bookings over the past 3 months has remained virtually unchanged ($700-720 mil) and such stabilization is a good sign as well (screams of 'More declines in equipment sales!!!!' notwithstanding). In other words, your initial enthusiasm was correct: bookings, to repeat, have NOT fallen over the last 3 months - the difference between April, May, and June are firmly within the noise of the data (as May's bookings revision from $704 mil to $714 mil clearly indicates). So once again we need to be reminded that we're in a period that is a mirror image of last year: I distinctly recall contributors commenting following the first couple of drops in the Btb (last year) that this was simply the result of shipments catching up with bookings. We were told not to worry because the consensus was that the industry would be strong through ~2003. Now we're told that the rise in the Btb over the past 2 months is simply the result of shipments 'catching-down' to the billings. We are told to continue to worry because the consensus is that the industry will not be strong again until ~2003. Perhaps, like the spring of 2000 (and every cycle peak or trough before it), this time really, really, REALLY will be different.