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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6225)7/23/2001 11:10:48 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Maurice, <<Bre-X was the sort of mentality that surrounds gold>>. You are right.

Yes, the Bre-x was the manifestation of hard-wired genetically coded mentality that worships gold, in the sense that gold is of value, fires the imagination, and worth haggling for. However, Bre-X had no gold.

Fidelity, and most Wall Street big boys had a chunk of Bre-X, and saw nothing coming at them until they are left with nothing.

I actually had at one time in the summer of 1999 gone through the Bre-X thread from message 4000 to 8000. Reads great. High entertainment and educational value. The effort, coupled with my reading of "Devel takes the Hindmost", saved me many years (decades) of active savings.

The SI archeology on that thread, in the cosmic scheme of matters and anti-matters, is worth more than the average college education. Recommend to all on this thread.

Chugs, Jay



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6225)7/28/2001 9:44:03 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Maurice. Get back here where you belong, from where you wandered off to …

Message 16137845

A good Sunday to you and I first, and the rest of the thread later. Now you see why this thread must be gentle with the hoofed animals such as yourself. If you had not stayed on the thread, the rest of us would just be a bunch of starved grumpy bears growling at each other, scaring each other silly:0) I do appreciate that you transfuse some needed optimism that keeps the thread energized, making all aware that events may still work out your way. We need that strong flame of hope kept going; else the den would be pitch dark, leaving all of us unable to even see our own shadows.

This past week was exciting in that many influential people spoke up on some critical issues that will wrap up our past and impact our future. The subject of the dollar was illuminated and debated. The dirty secrets of past JDSU profitability were put under the light. Dell’s famous cash hoard had been formally designated to buy back its worth-less shares at previous inflated prices. More folks got fired. A Saving & Loan went belly-button exposed to the sky. Doctor Greenspankie hinted at yet another FED rate decrease, and my Hong Kong home mortgage banker issued a letter notifying me that my new monthly payment will reflect a rate decrease to 5.25% (mortgage payments in Hong Kong are adjustable monthly).

Aside from information flow, nothing of importance happened on the financial markets this past week. The bulls and bears are still pinning the line of confrontation at an unsustainable high valuation. Argentina held its precarious position, soon to be swamped by overwhelmingly powerful force of realism. Amazon held as well, less rather than more well.

The two hard points of the New Economy (J6P consumer spent, and the USD) held more rather than less well. Though some light was shed on the perplexing nature of J6P spending and borrowing, and all seems to be connected strongly to where J6P lives, his home.

msnbc.com

Refinancing is sustaining spending,but do dangers lurk in the details?

Borrowers take advantage of “cash-out” refinancing


I remember we had a discussion on this point on this thread before, and now, one no less than Herr Doctor Grunspunk has spoken up …

prudentbear.com

QUOTE
From the Q&A session of Alan Greenspan’s July 24th Testimony before the Senate Banking, Housing Affairs Committee:

Colorado Senator Wayne Allard: "Chairman Greenspan, I think you would agree with me that housing has played a significant role in our economy historically … elaborate on the trends for housing prices, spending on residential structures, and mortgage interest rates”

Chairman Greenspan: "… occurring … evolution of housing … very sophisticated, complex industry … we’re observing a rather remarkable employment of that so-called home equity wealth in all sorts of household decisions."

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh: "… home price … good thing for the American economy and temporarily helpful in addressing the consumer issue and the current sluggishness. My question to you is … is this a worrisome long-term trend, people drawing down their home equity substantially?"

Chairman Greenspan: "…no evidence (of danger) … despite … significant extraction of home equity gains … fortunately."
UNQUOTE

Mr. Greenbubble is marveling at the financial sophistication of J6P, actively managing his potentially volatile home equity, just like a hedge fund named LTCM. J6P could not manage a stock portfolio without doing harm to himself, but it is now perfectly safe for him to manage his home equity by significantly 'extracting' it, possibly painfully, and place same at the mercy of the active financial market place.

Maurice, please remember that this is the same evil who had earlier quipped that one cannot know a bubble is happening until it has blown up.

Comrade Greenspew is now hinting of yet another FED rate decrease, so that more refinancing and extraction of home equity can be done, until it cannot be done any more. The J6P must be led to defend the bubble economy to the last dime of his equity, until he cannot anymore. New Economy is dead (cash is trash, and profit is proforma). New Economics is still alive (borrow and spend, then borrow again). It is hoped that the economy will turn the U-p before J6P has committed financial suicide.

Be still. The flame of hope just flickered again.

Are you still there, Maurice?

Chugs, Jay



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6225)7/28/2001 9:44:08 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Maurice, Given that the previous post did not manage to leave you in a state of icy cold panic, trying to call your broker on a Sunday, try this one :o)

How did I get to be a French Creole Chinese Trinidadian? The physical answer is simple. Step One, slight but ambitious Napoleon’s brave but smart supporters, losing their grand experiment in European unification and losing their emperor, had to set sail on elegant ships for the not-so-terrible Caribbean exile, leaving behind the brave and dumb supporters to the fury of the crowds. Step Two, courageous Hakka Chinese clan based Taiping (Heavenly Peace) rebels, losing their high-minded adventure against a different emperor, had to hurriedly disengage, keep heads on shoulders, and escape on less elegant ships to West Indies ‘paradise’, as a cohesive grouping. Step Three, happy individualistic Africans minding their own respective whims, answerable to no emperors, whistling in the lush sub-continent paradise, unaware of the evil that resides outside. In a moment of inattention, captured and put on death ships to simply breed with strangers, work for not of his kind, and then die.

The metaphysical answer is simpler, bearing resemblance to robotic engineering. Each and every preceding generation must stay alive for as long and as well off as possible, set up for continuing improvement of the next generation’s circumstances by passing along the core genetic programming and by non-destructive education. To fulfill this fundamental mission requirement, the following traits must be totally absent or suppressed from the core gene sequence: timid cowardice, foolish bravery, friendless selfishness, inclination to die a fighting death, weakness allowing spiritual surrender, and fault permitting physical and financial suicide.

The lack of all of the above mentioned traits at all times necessarily mean life will at times be exciting, at the high end of the precipice, at the juncture of danger and opportunity. To resolve the sometimes-unavoidable conflicts dictated by life at the precipice, the fiber of alertness to instantaneously disengage from incalculable but certain harm must be hard-woven into the chromosome structure, thus ensuring the continued survival of the coding (soul) and of its current platform (body).

Generations of ghosts are crying out: “Jay, trust your instinct, now, more than ever before. Run, right, away, silently, speedily, deep into the darkness, from the flame. Do not look back. You can no longer help your friend; New Economy is already dead”.

Here are some posts from my earliest participation on this fun thread, telling others to run for their lives as well, leaving still more others to figure matters out first hand and personal. As expected, I was right on some things, wrong on others, learnt some things, waiting on other things:

Message 14680593

Message 14861804

Message 14869036

Message 14869527

Message 14869886

Message 14876711

Message 14877214

Message 15113604

Chugs, Jay



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6225)7/28/2001 4:02:34 PM
From: Ilaine  Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Maurice,

Just for you, I tried to find out what my eBay rating is. I have six feedback comments, all positive. Gushing, even. I think they were kissing up to me to get me to leave one for them.