Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (49642)	7/23/2001 11:07:58 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, this is indeed perplexing, a quarter of flat bookings, near what one would say should be bookings bottom, but more interesting is the fact that this is happening six months after the sox, so far, has put its bottom in. I don't think that there is a historical precedent to rely on with similar characteristics. Thus right now, I am going to assume that the November/December bottom will be at least retested. Some stocks are already close to that (NEWP breached actually a week or so ago). Zeev

To: Gottfried who wrote (49642)	7/23/2001 11:15:09 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Could this be the U effect and not V. It may stay here at the bottom of a U for a little longer. I recall someone mentioning a W, this is my concern. I would think the longer we are at the bottom of a U, the less likely to see a W. Just a thought. Stan

To: Gottfried who wrote (49642)	7/24/2001 12:03:42 AM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Your chart is interesting. Following is the Spreadsheet form. The question I have, "Will Wall Street look at the BTB increased numbers public relation wise, or at the orders, and shipments? It is determined how they want to hype the issue.<GGG> Just my spreadsheet. Paul 1996/01 YEARS MNTH Orders Shipment BTB JAN'96 FEB'96 1687 1243 1.1 MAR'96 1447 1256 1.15 APR '96 1361 1354 1.01 MAY'96 1187 1366 0.87 JU'96 1175 1354 0.87 JLY'96 992 1311 0.76 AUG'96 882 1248 0.71 SPT'96 778 1119 0.7 OCT'96 833 1072 0.78 NOV'96 952 1062 0.9 DEC'96 1078 1069 1.01 JAN'97 1116 1034 1.08 FEB'97 1101 1029 1.07 MAR'97 1265 1102 1.15 APR'97 1386 1261 1.1 MAY'97 1421 1299 1.09 JU'97 1487 1375 1.07 JLY'97 1659 1476 1.12 AUG'97 1400.5 1536 1.1 SEP'97 1468.5 1672 1.06 OCT'97 1518 1793 1.02 splt NOV'97 1595.1 1598 1 DEC'97 1589 1559 0.99 JAN'98 1515.7 1458 0.93 FEB'98 1382.5 1369 0.9 MAR'98 1240.1 1370 0.82 APR'98 1136.9 1416 0.78 MAY'98 1107.1 1361 0.81 JU'98 932.7 1265.5 0.74 Jly'98 717.6 1112.1 0.65 AUG'98 571.6 1011.8 0.57 SEP'98 481.3 845.7 0.57 OCT'98 638 852.3 0.75 NOV'98 767.2 913.6 0.84 DEC'98 883.4 920.9 0.96 JAN'99 996.7 890 1.12 FEB'99 1028.8 845 1.22 MAR'99 1256.9 943.5 1.33 APR'99 1405.1 1099.1 1.28 MAY'99 1514.2 1216.7 1.24 JUN'99 1560.5 1288.3 1.21 JLY'99 1530.9 1375.2 1.11 AUG'99 1565.1 1440.7 1.09 SEP'99 1502.2 1406.5 1.07 OCT'99 1592 1465 1.09 NOV'99 1694.5 1528.5 1.11 DEC'99 1907.9 1597.9 1.19 JAN'00 2227.3 1603.5 1.39 FEB'00 2301.5 1564.3 1.44 MAR'00 2546.5 1744.9 1.46 APR.'00 2715.7 1991.4 1.36 MAY'00 2778.3 2157.7 1.29 JUN'00 2858.8 2259.6 1.27 JULY'00 2901.5 2373 1.22 AUG'00 2984.1 2431 1.23 SEP'00 2887.6 2475.9 1.17 OCT. 00 29930 2573.8 1.16 NOV. 00 2707.3 2422.3 1.12 Dec. 00 2372.3 2389.5 0.99 JAN.01 1854.2 2308.4 0.8 FEB'01 1610.9 2279.3 0.71 MAR'01 1197.3 2020.2 0.59 APR'01 751.3 1654.6 0.44 MAY'01 714 1485 0.48 JUNE'01 704.7 1310.8 0.54

To: Gottfried who wrote (49642)	7/24/2001 12:14:29 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi G, As always, thanks for the chart. One thought crossed my mind when I looked at the chart after reading your comment: The semi equip orders have been flat 3 months, unlike 2 prior cycles shown. Have not seen that before. What struck me was that we have seen this in the last down cycle, it's just that it occurred during the middle of the drop. It's possible that we could be faced with worse numbers going forward and that this is NOT the bottom that so many are predicting. 5 months before the bottom of 98, there was a three month plateau in orders well before the bottom was found. Just something to consider.

To: Gottfried who wrote (49642)	7/24/2001 3:42:16 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Let's see now.... Your chart appears to show the Btb bottoming in June/July, 1996, June/July, 1998, and June/July, 2001. This is indeed perplexing. Clearly this proves there's absolutely no historical precedent to rely on with similar characteristics, i.e. that the BtB typically bottoms in June/July. Thus right now I am going to assume that the November/December bottom will be at least retested. Because I find no evidence whatsoever that the Btb bottoms in June/July. None. Message 16117904

To: Gottfried who wrote (49642)	7/24/2001 7:59:37 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried: Re: "The semi equip orders have been flat 3 months, unlike 2 prior cycles shown. Have not seen that before. I bet someone will remind us he predicted it." I have said for months now that the issue for this sector is not whether we have hit bottom but how long we troll along the bottom <g>. People automatically assume that once you hit bottom there is no place to go but up. Not true in this environment where there was excess capital spending this past few years. The companies can bottom and uptick and downtick along that bottom for some time. This is the slow bleed scenario and it has a higher probability during this cycle than any previous ones. After last week, AMAT guidance is reflective of this probability --- finally. Rallies in this sector are now capped with that guidance. And besides listening to what AMAT says, look at what insiders are doing in this environment. They are still selling and I have not seen any insider buying in the semi equips. Insiders were buying in the autumn of 1998. Words coupled with consistent actions are strong signals. Now if insiders are buying but giving you the cautious guidance that is a different story. Let's look at TXN. They have burned 2/3rds of their capex for this year. Their plan for next year is questionable. They just completed a 300mm upgrade. So they have stated that they have plenty of capacity to meet demand going into next year. I suspect many chipmakers are in the same boat. So when the economy does recover -- if it is a slow growth mode recovery which is likely -- then the need for equipment will be limited for a period of time.