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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Zeev Hed who wrote (49644)7/23/2001 11:34:49 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Hi Zeev,

Don't you think that Newp is still in it's initial decline.I thought Newport rode the crest of fiber optic stocks which were immune from the semi bottom which went in last October.

Newport is riding with the JDSU bottoming action - still needs time to build a base - however the actual lowest low may well be happening now.

I think the protracted bottom seen in Gottfied BtoB charts is a result of the unusually large double top that occurred in 2000.

If you look at the trough it is actually lower than the past two cycle lows.

It's very much like drinking too much alcohol.The night before the more you drank the better it was (double top)- the next day (the trough) there is more hell to pay.Historically speaking we've been slapped hard already - but we all have to admit 2000 was a heck of a blowoff.

Sinners repent for your sins.ggg

Bob



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (49644)7/24/2001 12:22:29 AM
From: Gottfried  Respond to of 70976
 
Zeev, SEMI backlog is much higher than at the last bottom. suite101.com

Can be used only for month-to-month comparison since at the start of the chart I used an arbitrary number. I've learned from Don Wennerstrom that cancellations are subtracted from orders before SEMI posts them. [he asked SEMI]. So, companies with high backlog, like AMAT, can ride it out. AMAT's quarterly reported backlog is shown.

Gottfried