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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maceng2 who wrote (597)	7/24/2001 3:36:42 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

>> there was a persistent problem of banks failing prior to 1913 << 10,000 banks failed during the great depression after the fed had been in existence 20 years. there were massive bank failures in the 80's due to the s&l crisis. greenspan's job should be to run a sound currency, keeping inflation under control. his job is not to bail out banks on the back of the men and women of america who pay taxes.

To: maceng2 who wrote (597)	7/24/2001 4:38:37 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

The New Error thebullandbear.com by Clyde Harrison Rogers Raw Materials Fund Prior to the creation of the Fed, the worst bank panic caused 2.8% of the banks to fail in 1873. Following the creation of the Fed, almost 50% of the banks failed during the 30's. The Fed made a local problem national. Now, the problem is global ............................................................................................................................ In September's Business Week, an editorial, "The New Era" stated the following: For five years, at least, American business has been in the grip of an apocalyptic, holy-rolling exaltation over the unparalleled prosperity of the "New Era," upon which we, or it, or somebody, has entered. A North American millennium is imminent. We have seen an amazing increase in man-hour production in industry. We have seen new industries rise like rockets and old ones grow tired and die. We have seen the machinery of distribution formed and reformed into new patterns changing every day before our eyes. We have seen security prices soar out of sight of earnings. Broker's loans swell till they absorb a third of banking resources of he country. Banks merge and emerge in chains, trailing trusts and holding companies while industrial corporations pay dividends not by producing goods but by buying each others stock and by borrowing and lending everybody's money in the market. The foregoing isn't from this September's Business Week. The editorial is from the very first Business Week ever published, September 7, 1929. ........................................................................................................................... Today, 56% of our oil comes form foreign sources, a 20% increase over 1973. Our oil problem rests not with lack of supply, but our refusal to use our natural resources. The only question is at what price will the public demand drilling $60/BBL, $100/BBL, $200/BBL? Our short-term politically correct policies could result in a bounty on Caribou in the long-term with bus loads of hunters heading to Alaska on weekends. Peace put 2-1/2 billion people in the world labor market. India and China alone contain 2 billion consumers. Suppose each of the 2 billion people consumes a mere quart of gasoline per week as their economy booms. That's an additional 1.7 million barrels a day, new demand that is sure to increase price. Today, China is booming. They have declared the national bird the construction crane. The Chinese will go from walking to bikes, to motorcycles and to autos. They will need oil and gas, chemicals, forest products and metals. In the first 6 months of 2000, China's oil imports increased 100%. The Chinese eat less meat in a year than we eat in a weekend. Raw materials are now close to their lowest prices in history. Tops and bottoms are creatures of extreme. Markets rise above all rational expectation and then go higher and then they fall farther than common sense suggests. The most desirable investments for the future might not be in cyber space, but back to the basics. By the end of 1998 the only drilling rig in Texas not lying on its side was at the Midland petroleum Museum. Oil in 1982 was $28 a barrel. Allowing for 3% inflation that would equal $47 a barrel today. In 1981 there were 4,530 oil rigs operating in the U.S. In September of this year there were 800, up from 500 in April of 99. It takes a long time to add to capacity. Aggressive EPA regulations have so discourage refinery construction that there is no major refinery operating today that is less than 25 years old. The capacity to produce most raw materials has declined, dramatically in some cases in the last 20 years, while demand has continued to increase. As you climb the ladder of financial services, check to make sure it's leaning on the right wall. I believe raw materials will be one of the best investments for the next 10 to 15 years.