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Non-Tech : Deflation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (64)	7/24/2001 8:47:26 AM
From: Davy Crockett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 621

I am actually wondering about deflation. But there has NOT been a cascading credit and asset collapse which I have worried about for 5 years. Yet. Well we've certainly gone through & will continue to go through a cascading deflationary collapse in equities. As you have indicated, now we just have to wait for the inevitable real estate pullback & the subsequent collapse in credit, which will hit consumers’ especially hard <g> & so the cycle continues... Regards, Peter

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (64)	7/26/2001 3:34:10 AM
From: JF Quinnelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 621

If you're printing money at full speed (well, cutting rates as fast as you can), and there's no sign of inflation-- or any upturn in business activity-- then I think there must some pretty strong deflationary forces at work. I wonder if the Fed erred in raising rates- the market bubble would have popped anyway, and the two effects combined really eliminated a lot of buying power. Now there's not enough buying power to keep the economy humming, and cutting rates isn't going to put wealth back in the pockets of investors who crashed and burned.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (64)	8/11/2002 10:57:18 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 621

Well, another year on. Amazingly, things are still on an even keel. Telecosmic implosion complete, dot.bomb smoke cleared, GE, JPM and other biggies seem threatening. Plenty of turbulence still [US Airways spins out]. Interest rates at 40 year low. Unemployment stable. No recession to speak of. Market clearing proceeding apace. No inflationary mania, no deflationary implosion. Steady as she goes, with only a few men overboard... Mq