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To: Gottfried who wrote (49667)	7/24/2001 11:11:02 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

From CEUT on BtB... Interesting to note that Tim O'Neill believes that Front End orders have started to move up. While this doesn't mean that an uptrend is firmly in place or will continue, it is a very small encouraging sign. Ian +++++++++++++++ Semiconductor Capital Equipment Jul , 24 , 2001 , 08:00 : June Book-to-Bill The June Book-to-Bill for North American equipment suppliers was released last night. As we had earlier forecasted, bookings appear to have troughed in April as front-end equipment orders ticked up slightly in both May and June. This was also confirmed in data released yesterday on Worldwide Wafer Processing orders (as opposed to this data which is U.S. only), which reported a very slight uptick in May orders. Total equipment orders (three-month-average basis) declined a bit from the revised $714.1 million in May to $704.7 million for June; a decline of approximately 1% sequentially attributed to the back end suppliers. This isn’t surprising since the ATE side is fully dependent on the trends in IC units and our forecast only just now in July shows them stabilizing. Total semiconductor equipment billings (three-month-average basis) decreased to $1.311 billion, representing an approximate 12% sequential decline. The resulting book-to-bill ratio was 0.54, which is slightly up from the revised 0.48 reported for May. The ratio is higher due to the slowing order decline rate, but declines in revenue continue and we expect the revenue trend to continue.

To: Gottfried who wrote (49667)	7/24/2001 11:11:37 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Gottfried, I don't believe that for a minute. It will immediately be spent and that with velocity and turnover will be a plus. Bob

To: Gottfried who wrote (49667)	7/24/2001 11:12:20 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

G, It's not like folks run to the bank and save that $600 or pay off a bill with that $600. The money gets comingled in most cases with other assets. At the end of the period there is $600 more left or $600 less in debt. Folks feel a little richer and at some point many will wind up expending those dollars. Back to school is the next retail season and probably the first to be positively impacted. Tracking each of these dollars is impossible--it's the cumulative effect that counts just like with the higher takehome pay, lower gas prices and lower interest rates. Taken together this is powerful Keynsian stimulus. Eventually inventories will fall and production will kick in. The market should be making that bet soon--i thought last week. Bob's grinding action continues today but with all the stimulus out there it would take an exigent event to cause a retest of the old lows. mike