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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JOHN W. who wrote (80851)	7/25/2001 12:08:08 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 99985

Nortel, Lucent, Ciena, JDSU, CSCO -- the telecom equipment stocks. No secret that NT and LU have been out of favor for a while. Lucent's cash position getting better. JDSU also has cash. This was the one sector that I was NOT willing to go long. (actually was my favorite shorting group) Just thought about it again; maybe it is the best one in technology as it the most beaten up. I just wonder if these are the types due for an easy 30% to 50% bounce--LU, NT, JDSU. Maybe CSCO, CIEN can also bounce significantly. Cien did well in a bad market today and the downward move on it seems to have come to a halt. We may also see some bottom calling in the group; far more bearish analysts in this sector. Paul Sagawa is the most influential and any hint of a bottom from this analyst could easily set these stocks on fire. Any more bad news will not be a surprise. Semis have been bought by even value fund managers but not telecom equipment/optical to any large degree. That is what makes me want to play the bounce; maybe starting with Lucent and JDSU. These should outperform the Naz even in a flat market. It has been noted by semiconductor analysts that business can't get any worse and it gets worse. However the telecom equipment analysts expect a worsening and that could be a good indicator to go long the group. The sellers of these stocks as well as short sellers might have finally exhausted themselves in this group. This is why I want to once again get long this sector; appears to be a good risk/reward at current prices. Anyone have an opinion on this beaten up group?