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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: orkrious who wrote (20628)7/27/2001 10:55:20 AM
From: Andre Williamson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Jay, looks like you're market timing to me. I think that $19 million a quarter in royalties, in a slump, during what is typically a crap quarter, is nothing to sneeze at. We're still at the beginning of the ramp-up of digital cameras and who knows what else that might use these cards. By holding off, you may get your much cheaper price...or you may not.

I see broadband as a huge driver for flash memory, and it is finally ramping up aggressively in North America - but we are still at the very beginning of this process, not only here but especially on a global basis. (The nice thing about having IP in flash is that the revenues can be tapped everywhere, whereas the telecom providers are usually limited geographically and have to put up huge investments to benefit.)

My assumption, and I may do ok even if I'm wildly wrong, is that SanDisk gets royalties from a lot of companies that matter.

I also think Lexar's days as an independent company are numbered, and that the territory they have claimed with their technology is likely to get run over by new SanDisk/Toshiba advances.

Anyway, things may get worse, but I'm not betting on it :)

JMO

Andre



To: orkrious who wrote (20628)7/29/2001 9:59:11 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Respond to of 60323
 
Jay, I take a long term view. As Keynes said, in a 100 years, we'll all be dead. I do not subscribe to the idea that nothing can be done about an economic slump and its effects on everyone, much less investors. It's worth reading the article by Harvard economist Jeffery Sachs, which appeared in The Economist about two weeks ago. Sachs recommended a Marshall Plan for less developed countries, which would in his view have the same effect as the original plan that pulled western Europe out of the devastation of World War II. A new plan, which Sachs suggested should be called the Powell Plan, after the current Secretary of State, would rapidly get the semiconductor industry up to a reasonable capacity, improve the productivity (and buying power) of developing countries, and save the developed nations from the waste of underutilized, misdirected resources. Rather than a tax cut for ourselves, we should be providing the wherewithall for less developed countries to improve enough to do business with us on mutually profitable basis.

Second, I have never seen a period when there was nothing to invest in. My father bought about 200 shares of a little company in Minnesota in 1934. They had recently put a product on the market called "Scotch Tape." The invetment did well over the years. For the past two years, I have suggested to my clients that they put a portion of their portfolio into Washington Real Estate Investment Trust, which invests solely in DC area commercial and industrial properties, including shopping centers, apartments, warehouses, etc. The company has shown better than 12 percent growth over the past 10 years, and even more this year (office space for all the DC lobbyists); has a better than 5 percent yield, and never has failed to increase its dividend each year for the past 30 years. As I say, there are some decent investments around, particularly if you're willing to accept overall performance limited to about 15 percent annual gains.

Art