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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. Graphs who wrote (92855)	7/28/2001 4:37:41 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

E. Graphs. A few, yes. You're revisiting some important points that deserve emphasis. Thanks for reemphasizing them. A few of us have talked about high %age of net bulls in several recent sentiment surveys here (and on SA II) as well as strong evidence of continued heavy insider selling. These and other indicators are very bearish for the Intermediate to Long Term broad market. That notwithstanding, we had some very sharp ST and one good Intermediate (greater than 1 month) rally so far this year. So I try to: 1. Specify my posted real time buys and sells as much as possible with intended holding periods, so readers don't become confused. Right now? Color me LT Bearish. ST slightly Bullish and Intermediate Term neutral. 2. Emphasize that, since I started investing actively with a modest pile of Double Eagles in 1973, most of my work has been focused on oil & NG, oil service, defense and PM stocks. Overweighed the PMs in mid-April early May for the 1st time in many years after my work indicated that sector would lead the market and performance since that timing call (per posts at the time) has proven that was the right decision despite occasion mutterings from my critics<g>: siliconinvestor.com More recently, since the HUI went into a trading range, have been buying dips and selling rallies in the PMs - always keeping at least a few core positions. Currently long 1/3 or 1/2 positions in: GLG, ECO, CDE and HL. 2 golds and 2 silvers. Per your post, <My resolve got seriously shaken this past week in the PM sector>. Consider this a semantic point not a criticism. "Resolve" is OK as long as it doesn't deteriorate into fighting the market. We all saw what happened both last October and November AND during just the past 4-8 weeks to the patch perma bulls who did that and lost big time. For me? Resolve, determination and steadfastness are fine as long as I'm on the right side of a trending sector. When the market isn't trending, the name of the game is to be nimble, flexible and cool headed. Because in a trendless market you're going to get wipsawed and possible scared out of your positions near the lows. And remember everybody, the PM market is very thin compared to other sectors that received comparable media coverage and investor interest. So it's be nature very volatile to begin with. Just like very lo volume stocks, TA doesn't work in thinly capitalized markets like the PM sector. Although I use charts, most of my PM work is FA, for that reason. Then add to an already think market - many decades of government interference/manipulation and "...you gotta be careful out there." You can be dead on with the big picture yet get decimated by a sharp correction. Best regards, Isopatch

To: E. Graphs who wrote (92855)	7/28/2001 6:25:54 PM
From: E. Graphs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

O/T ....One more chart: GE Here is another example of falling relative strength over the same time period which has culminated in a massive head and shoulders top. It's interesting that there is a downward spike attempt just after the new year. This spike seemed 'planned' to settle the measurement early for this bearish formation .....the same thing happened in the chart of the Dow...... because I watched that break happen without much fanfare, on low volume, no fear, it got scooped up very quickly, no harm done. Not liking my charts getting ripped off <g> I was hoping it would all come back to roost, and for now it has. Perhaps the much anticipated retirement of Jack Welch on September 7th will finish this one off......or, perhaps the importance of these topping formations are gone with gold and, like the fiat dollar, easily fixed. All I can say for sure is that we're going to know soon. siliconinvestor.com