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To: isopatch who wrote (92856)	7/28/2001 5:11:31 PM
From: E. Graphs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Isopatch, Thanks for your comments. You are right, I was looking for more of a technical view, but can appreciate the fundamental picture too. Gold just hasn't seemed to come to any kind of top, overdone or otherwise, but where does it say that it has to? You're right, it's better to stay nimble. Best to You, E. Graphs

To: isopatch who wrote (92856)	7/28/2001 8:34:13 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

Just read my earlier post. UGH! Here's a more complete and cleaned up version of what I had in mind earlier today. (Gotta stop the last minute posts when I'm 1/2 way out the door to do something else.<g> BTW, everybody, Jurassic Park III is well worth going to see.) ______________________________________________________________ E. Graphs. You're revisiting some important points that deserve emphasis. Thanks. A few of us have talked here (and on SA II) about the high %age of net bulls in recent sentiment surveys, as well as strong evidence of continued heavy insider selling. These and other indicators are very bearish for the Intermediate to Long Term broad market. That notwithstanding (and typical in Bear Markets) we've had some tricky ST, but one good Intermediate rally so far this year that rewarded those who bot the right stocks vs those who stayed entirely in cash. So I try to: 1. When possible, specify my intended holding periods for posted buys. That avoids confusing readers about what my objective is for the trade. 2. Trying to post buys as close to real time eliminates the unnecessary risk of misunderstandings later. Any reader who likes to verify sector calls or trades after the move can go look for themselves. It's all on the record. Right now? Color me LT Bearish. ST slightly Bullish with a few positions, and Intermediate Term neutral. If that changes? I'll post it. 3. Emphasize that, since I started investing actively with a modest pile of Double Eagles in 1973, most of my work has been focused on oil & NG, oil service, defense and PM stocks. Have read folks on a lot of different threads who want to trade and/or post about every sector. Not picking on anyone, folks. Just saying that from what I've seen of their analysis? It tends to be superficial, at best. IMHO, it takes a good fundamental understanding of each sector you want to work in before chart work or TA of that sector can be helpful. Because there is interplay between the 2 which produces good ideas that the purists who use only one will never get. Overweighed the PMs in mid-April early May, for the 1st time in many years, after my work indicated the sector would lead the market and performance since that sector timing call (per posts at the time) has proven that was the right decision despite occasional dark mutterings from my critics<g>: siliconinvestor.com. More recently, since the HUI went into a trading range, have been buying dips and selling rallies in the PMs - always keeping at least a few core positions. Currently long 1/3 or 1/2 positions in: GLG, ECO, CDE and HL. 2 golds and 2 silvers. Per your post, <My resolve got seriously shaken this past week in the PM sector>. Consider this a semantic point, not a criticism. "Resolve" is OK as long as it doesn't deteriorate into fighting the market. We all saw what happened both last October & November, AND during the past few months to the patch perma bulls who did that and lost big time. For me? Resolve, determination and steadfastness are fine as long as I'm on the right side of a trending sector. When the market isn't trending it's a completely different ball game. The name of the game then is to be nimble, flexible and cool headed. Because in a trendless market with declining volume you risk getting wipsawed and possibly scared out of your positions near the lows if you're too heavily committed. I tend to travel light, unless there's a good dip to buy, till the trend returns. And remember everybody, the PM market is very thin compared to other sectors that receive comparable media coverage and investor interest. So, that makes it more volatile to begin with. A thinly capitalized market like the PM sector is a lot like working with very lo volume stocks. TA doesn't work very well. Although I use charts, most of my PM work is FA, for that reason. Then if you add many decades of government interference/manipulation to an already thin capitalization? "You gotta be careful out there." I've seen all kinds of excellent big picture thinkers be absolutely be dead on with their macro read big picture and still get decimated by a sharp correction. Best regards, Isopatch