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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (877)	7/28/2001 9:25:26 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95450

Has anyone noticed that absolutely nobody is talking about the fact that we are still headed down, and quickly approaching recession territory on a worldwide scale? All the tech stocks are pricing in an imminent recovery. Everyone is EXPECTING a major recovery next year, even though nobody is able to verbalize what is going to cause this miraculous recovery. Given the forward guidance from companies so far, I am inclined to believe we will be in recession next quarter. Final GDP for this quarter will be revised down from .07 when the next (negative) number comes out. IMHO The end of year number will also be negative. We could easily be in recession for a year or more as there is nothing on the horizon to pull us out. Yeah, yeah, I'm full of it. But what if I'm right? The current data supports my position better than it does the recovery position. Six months ago economists were forecasting economic growth of 8% this year. It is currently less than 1% and dropping. The majority of today's investors have never been through a real recession. The best argument for recovery I have heard is that the interest rate cuts will act like an engine to get the economy going. My response is to look at Japan, whose interest rates have been ZERO for quite some time now. How is their economy doing? Interest rates are the brakes, not the engine, of the economy.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (877)	7/28/2001 9:40:12 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95450

Last week was atypical because the NASDAQ was unchanged for the week while the group and the SOX were up 4 percent and 5 percent respectively. From a long term perspective I have noticed that the "Beta" of the group and the SOX are roughly 2 to 1 compared to the NASDAQ. Usually the 3 indices go in the same direction, but not last week. In general, the stocks in the semi equip group followed the NASDAQ last week - down on Monday and Tuesday with increases the remaining 3 days of the week. The semi equip group and the SOX were much more exuberant than the NASDAQ, however during the last 3 days.<g> I am not as confident as you about the turn around being by the end of October. I think the situation is pretty dicey right now. Consumer confidence is all that is keeping this market going. Now with the job cuts - that are accelerating recently - consumers may start to pull back more rapidly. If that happens before the tech and manufacturing area start to show signs of recovery, it may be a lot longer than October before this market turns around. I do agree with your assessment of good trading opportunities in this business climate, but it is hard to keep up with the market schizophrenia!!<gg> Don