To: Davy Crockett who wrote (52552 ) 7/29/2001 11:42:38 AM From: Vitalsigns Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 62347 interesting point...We would change that...if people believe the market will crash then it likely won't ...hmmm.. .. I wasn't trading in the days of the '87 crash so maybe some of the people who were, can comment. I remember that one like it was yesterday. I remember that many HAD turned bearish ahead of the collapse . There were many newspaper articles asking wether the markets were do for a '29 style market decline. The arguments everywhere were getting very hot as the Bull camp and the Bear camps exchanged their views. The bulls said that a sharp decline was impossible due to exchange mechanism set up to prevent that . I had many very good arguments with a professor of economics , who had been a trader for many many years said ' it was impossible for the market to crack' and that was 1 week before it did. I was on the other side of that argument and still remember that exchange very vividly. Last April 2000 was NOT a surprise, neither was the January to April 4 ,2001 low a surprise. It was fully expected by those who were paying a great deal of attention. This rally or recovery that is supposed to be happening right now can get carried away to the upside but you noticed I do not use any words to suggest it will last. The April low was buyable and suggested a three month recovery. That was due to seasonality effect, but I am smelling Blood again and there are many small fires around that can flare up and create the catalyst that will be Blamed for the eventual new low . Everyone always focuses on 1 single item that caused the big events, when in fact is it a culmination of several small events that finally reach a breaking point. Currencies tend to be blamed most often for causing world market problems , but the currencies themselves only reflect all the small problems that are brewing up behind the scenes. I do not hope for a Crash or sustained decline because I have nothing to gain from it , many will be hurt from it and it will impact all of us in many different ways. I would like nothing better than to see a clear and sustained move up and away from current danger and let David beat Goliath . Unfortunately , I cannot ignore the realities , like in '87 that the markets are quickly losing their footings and that even a small shudder or vibration can cause it to break. I am on high alert since mid July, and will not come off this heightened alert until the next positive seasonality change occurs in Spring 2002. And your right, this has nothing to do with Daytrading, and I will not post anymore of these on this thread. The reason I did was that most people do NOT follow the rules of Daytrading (which means one sells all holding before the close each day and are sitting in Cash overnight) . Anyone who holds a position overnight WILL be a High risk of any one of the events that happens. The Deck is stacked heavily against against the Long position at this point in time . Be Aware