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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6411)	7/29/2001 9:41:21 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>The invention of the internet [or, more accurately the telecosm and all that is linked to it and going to be linked to it] will make the invention of electricity trivial. Maurice, I agree with you. But a transforming technology does not necessarily mean profits and higher stock markets. In the short to medium term (say the next five years or so) the internet and the telecosm may prove to be profit destroyers for western corporations and a potent deflationary force. They facilitate wholesale transfer of western know-how to hungry entrepreneurial places, which don't care much about intellectual rights. And they help eliminate a good chunk of the service work force, the only source of employment growth in the West. Not good for Western stock markets. We desperately need a flood of cyberspace killer apps that make actual money to substitute for all the profit destruction. Unfortunately, all the ones I keep dreaming up result in even greater revenue and profit elimination from the 3D economy.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6411)	7/30/2001 3:16:44 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 74559

i would give this a hard read <<Date: JUL 29, 2001 Technology Pros Discuss What Comes After the Fall By JUDITH H. DOBRZYNSKI Four top Silicon Valley executives discuss the culture, the problems and the future of the information technology industry Source: The New York Times Section: Technology Go to Article July 29, 2001 Technology Pros Discuss What Comes After the Fall By JUDITH H. DOBRZYNSKI Peter DaSilva for The New York Times (Left to Right) Craig Barrett - Intel CEO, Judy Estrin - Packet Design CEO, Mitchell Kertzman - Liberate technologies CEO, Eric Schmidt - Novell/Google Chairman The American economy may or may not be in a recession — but the information technology industry surely is, with no sign of an upturn. Lately, Silicon Valley, fabled for its invention, its can-do mentality and its dot-com fever, is looking a lot less fabled. ... link to lenghthy article,free registration required if one is not already nytimes.com .... here is one quote from article<<SCHMIDT Things may actually be worse than we're saying. You had this enormous overbuild that occurred in telecommunications, which was largely vendor-financed. You have all of the issues around PC market saturation in certain key markets. You have Windows XP as the next great white hope there. You have these incredible physicists who work at Intel who continue to build new processors, faster and faster. And the value proposition isn't necessarily there for the whole solution — the next "killer app" has not yet evolved. On top of that you had the Internet, which is the world's biggest opportunity to hype something because everyone could see that it was transformative. So you have this enormous overbuilding, which will take a fairly long time to overcome. It's overbuilding at the software level, at the systems level, at the infrastructure level, at the fiber optic level. Meanwhile, the technology continues to get better. I think the slowdown could be quite a bit longer than all of us would like it to be. BARRETT We have this tremendous overbuild but none of us can get broadband to our home.>>end quote--- max