Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techreports who wrote (45005)	7/30/2001 10:12:24 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

Regarding BEAS market share, here is some new information: leviticus.boards.fool.com If Giga is correct BEAS is gaining marketshare at a rather rapid pace against the industry and against IBM. Also note that IBM does not break out these revenues. IBM puts out a lot of press releases and spokespersons in articles mention how well IBM is doing in marketshare all the time yet IBM doesn't actually release enough information to verify any of this. Interpret that any you want. But kind of reminds me of Oracle never releasing information regarding their million dollar challenge. Anyway, that is the latest information I have in regard and it was very good news in regard to BEAS. At least if the report is accurate. If so, it clearly demonstrates BEAS pulling away from the pack. A pack that is down to two major players and 30 some add at the fringe at best players. Now on to GMST. Since when has Gemstar been unsimitized? I just saw the movie Planet of the Apes and I swear I saw Henry Yuen's mug as one of the simian extras. If you go by product adoption GMST certainly is in a Tornado. 20 million installed homes is just around the corner. Last time I spoke about GMST, oh, about 12 months or so ago it was 2-5 million. My concern about GMST right now is whether or not the prize is worth the marketcap. Obviously licensing revenue (the traditional software gorilla prize) will not be sufficient to support GMST's valuation as a gorilla going forward. It will have to be the more Godzilla oriented ad revenues that will have to serve. Perhaps this is where GMST comes up short, as traditional Gorilla penetration is not sufficient. We have to wait and see if its Godzilla self can lift it to Gorilla status. In order to do so we need billions of dollars in ad revenues. In the current market conditions this is just not a realistic possibility. Can it do so in the future? Perhaps that is why there is doubt. The Godzilla head, attached the Gorilla body, is still experimental and may not enable the poor beast to eat its bananas and survive in a gorilla persona, despite otherwise gorilla positioning in the industry. Or perhaps not. But just wondering where all the unsimianization regarding GMST is coming from. To my eyes it is determining if this is truly a market worthy of a gorilla relative to GMST's current marketcap. I think that question is still up in the air and revolves around that Godzilla head. Tinker

To: techreports who wrote (45005)	7/30/2001 11:53:17 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

techreports, Sheesh! You're getting me in trouble with Frank. He never reads the Fool. If it hadn't been for you, he would never have known about my nasty comment about his eternal optimism. :) Now that Gemstar is experiencing 100% YoY growth in the IPG can we now call GMST a gorilla or are the revenues too small? I'm interested in seeing the revenue in the upcoming quarterly report. You're probably aware that I try my best to use revenue as the ultimate decider of pongoid status, not the numer of IPGs being used, etc., etc. If we came to the conclusion that GMST isn't a gorilla then how can BEAS be one? I don't understand your question. If you had the impression that I think BEA is a gorilla, somehow communications went kafluey. (Is that the correct spelling? :) First, we can't even accurately tell if they are in a tornado (with GMST it was pretty easy). Really? How? If I was convinced Gemstar was in a sustained tornado, I'd think it is a Gorilla. There aren't any competitors with any where near their marketshare. More important, they've got such strong command of their value chain, it would be difficult in my mind not to declare Gemstar a Gorilla once a sustained tornado is proven. Second, some question if this is really a gorilla game or a royalty game. Yes, but the only thing that matters is what you think. Not to be too obvious or corny, but it's your money, not theirs. Many more questions than we had with Gemstar. Isn't Gorilla Gaming fun? If it was easy, could it possibly be this much fun? :) --Mike Buckley

To: techreports who wrote (45005)	7/31/2001 9:34:47 AM
From: Judith Williams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Tech-- some question if this [BEAS] is really a gorilla game or a royalty game This confusion stems, I think, from the same source as the confusion over market share. Revenue figures include apples and oranges across companies, and there are several games being played in the app server market. There are the applications games within various market niches and then there is the platform game. Alex, on the Fool, pointed to a useful distinction here from Moore. The applications games are naturally oriented to vertical markets. This is where BEAS, I think, has knocked down a series of important bowling pins. Vertical markets, from Moore: "Readily [adapt] to the beachhead focus needed to cross the chasm. Later on in the life cycle, however, as solutions generalize, mass marketing rewards more of a one-size-fits-all offer." Early in the cycle--and I would guess a good spell into it--the vertical markets that BEAS targets in its apps are so large and the companies so focused on differentiation that "one-size-fits-all" or out-of-the box solutions do not meet the individual needs of specific enterprises. This is a reason, I suspect, that Oracle's approach has been found wanting--quite apart from the lock-in to its data base. Then there is the "naturally horizontal" game of platforms. "When markets go mass, platforms have the advantage. Because they can participate openly in many value chains at the same time, they can be taken up in multiple segments simultaneously." As you know, Moore sees these "horizontal" platform markets as huge wins--they are also the hardest to get across the chasm. The bets are huge and it takes a lot to convince the pragmatist to make a move. It's useful when talking about BEAS--and trying to distinguish where it is in the TALC--to keep in mind the various games in which it is playing. What holds for one game does not for another. Apps may and probably will turn out to be a royalty game. But the whole point about platforms is the standardization--which to my mind makes it inherently a gorilla game. Once at critical mass, the platform becomes the standard with huge network effects as its value chain grows. The apps games are further along, but the platform game will be the big payoff. And it's the first quarter there, but BEAS seems at this point to have the advantage. --Judith