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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (21056)	8/1/2001 2:36:03 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Well said. The extent of complacency among tech stock investors is amazing. I shudder to think of what's around the corner. The next 3 to 4 months ought to be very interesting.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (21056)	8/1/2001 4:16:11 PM
From: uu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Dear Cary: > Pick specific stocks and use historical data to get a ballpark on their future prospects. Take a look at JDSU's historical performance. I guess the simplest form of justifying investment in JDSU is the following: This past quarter they lost $43.61/shr. The stock has been hammered from the $140's to the $8/shr range. It has held up pretty well in the $8-$10/shr range after the huge loss. 24 months from now, one of the following 2 can happen: a) JDSU goes out of business completely due to financial problems, and/or Internet dying. b) JDSU will show an earnings report that is well above their current $43.61/shr loss! Even if they show a $20/shr loss it is still a 50% improvement! I strongly believe JDSU will show at the minimum a penny/shr earnings in 24 months from now, and that will result in a huge upside movement when doing a q-q comparison!! Bottom line, do not attempt to come up with some logic as why a stock is going up, or is not going down, etc. Do not fight the trends (regardless of how idiotic they might appear to be). Because if you do, you will simply be crushed like peanut is crushed under an elephant! Market is all about humans taking advantage of each others fears and greed! Regards,

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (21056)	8/2/2001 3:02:27 PM
From: Sampat Saraf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Cary, I looked at historical prices, JDSU traded at around split adjusted $5/shr at the time of asia collapse in Oct. 1998. The Fiscal year sales for 2001 (ending June) are about 10 times those of FY 1999 (ending June 1999). On a price/sales basis even in dire times we should see a stock price of 10*5=$50/shr based on 1998 collapse prices. Where do you see hole in this valuation model? They appear to have monopoly status on Fiber Optics -- a future growth engine for the economy. Which company is likely to steal this revenue from JDSU in future? Losses on a monopoly stream of revenue can only last so long, eventually the business starts charging more to get some earnings on their books. IMHO, its undervalued by traditional valuation concepts.