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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50043)	8/1/2001 7:05:13 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Great post, Jacob. One other thing. The stocks were "cheap" at the bottom in '96 and '98. They aren't today, unless of course we have another couple of years (beginning soon) of not just decent growth from here, but phenomenal growth. Jay

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50043)	8/1/2001 9:27:27 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

It says, "Basically, a lot of people are saying, "things are bad now, and are still getting worse, but it's getting worse at a slower rate than before, so”. This sound like a bucket of water. The buck is full of holes, with bigger hole at the top and smaller at the bottom. As the water continues to leak out of the bucket, it will leak less as it gets closer to the bottom, but the bottom hole still continue to leak. The leak is slow, but never the less leaking and it can all leak out. Just like a colander draining spaghetti. :0) Stan

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (50043)	8/2/2001 7:23:58 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Jacob, I think your scenario makes a lot of fearful sense.I disagree with your analysis that this time it is worse. As best I recall October of 98 - we had a third world currency melt down - the next shoe to drop was "fearfully expected to be : Brazil China etc. Greenspan dropped rates to pump the money machine so Long Term Capital wouldn't unwind a major market. Realistically rates now are much lower than then (we have to go back to 93 to see low rates as now and we're still not done). This economic drop off is not a recession - it is an inventory adjustment.This has impacted primarily manufacturing.Service sector is still 2/3 of our economy - people are still working.All these announced job cuts will be absorbed by a growing economy that is crying out for more workers.Job layoffs are met with job opportunities.That's why out unemployment rate is still below 5 % (once thought to be the natural rate of unemployment). This last quarter - the GDP dropped to .7 % - down from an unsustainable rate of 4.5 to 5 %.Auto manufacturers are back to building and we begin to see semi sector looking at growth i.e. Texas Instruments calling wireless "a growth market".This will not impact all sectors at once - but the first of sectors are now being seen. That's why the guru's are calling it "a bottom". I'm not looking for a v- bounce - I'm looking for long, slow, dull, boring consolidation.We will not see a MOMO market like 2000 for maybe ever. The question you have to ask yourself is do you want to buy the bottom or wait for the breakout. I like the bottom, and I believe,based on a sector rotation,that bottoms have been going in ever since last October(NVLS, AMAT,COHU),this last April(ORCL and other softwares) and last month for networkers and FO (JDSU,SUNW). The world is not going to end.The continued build out of the internet has now been made easier by cheap money.Telecoms loaded up with debt have just had their interest expense cut buy 1/3. So good will still happen. Fear mongering of the world collapsing and waiting for that, will keep you out of the market - and then you'll have the pleasure of chasing these stocks on the way up.erggg - now that I really hate. The best guy to listen to is Morgan. He's lived it - ever since it has been. I think he nailed it "They'll all come at once". These projects have lead times and they've just been made more economically feasible with a reduction in rates and the tax rebates will pull inventory out of the channel. I have a pretty bright view of the economy.If GDP turns from here up the world will declare Allan Greenspan a "Genius". He took an overheated economy in 2000 and cooled it down to less than 1 % GDP and now it slowly grows at a sustainable rate. AHHHHH Here we are - where we always should've been. Nope it's not time to be fear mongering - although that's the natural emotion after a slow down. It instead is time to do the opposite - be aggressive. That's right, it is time to be aggressive at the bottom - the safest place to be aggressive in. Remember where you heard it first. If you're short - GET LONG !!! If you're long - GET MORE !!! JMHO, Bob