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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (115495)	8/3/2001 12:50:19 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I've got this nagging feeling that the clowns have to go ape one more time in a spectacular way before this happens ...

To: Lucretius who wrote (115495)	8/3/2001 12:50:27 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Respond to of 436258

>> PLEASE TRANSLATE THIS CRASH ARTICLE FROM GERMANY I don't speak German, but courtesy of AltaVista's translation service: Frankfurt/Main - Crash Gurus gives it many, but there are only few, which predict a stock exchange failure exactly on one week. And it is not any: Albert Edwards, global chief strategist with Dresdner small word boiler scale, forecasts a collapse of the stock market at the barrier Street - thus a failure over 20 per cent - for the coming week, which will bring world-wide the markets to the quake. " we proclaimed so far still no Crash, because it gave, says for it no foreseeable reason " Dresdner strategist to Albert Edwards. Now however investors should paint themselves 7 August thickly in the calendar. As trip for the failure the expert sees new US economic situation data. Thus on coming Tuesday the productivity numbers for the second quarter are published. Because a new calculation method will lead to the frightening result that it so far ago is not nevertheless with the American productivity miracle. The Potenzialwachstum, into the economy to add can produce without inflation, as before assumed about 3,5 per cent not be, so Edwards. " it might constitute only 2.5 per cent. " That would have serious consequences: Because a Potenzialwachstum revised downward makes it necessary to consider the entire economic policy including the monetary political adjustment of the issuing bank Federal reserve. Right has if Edwards', then the Fed much too late raised the interest in the passed year and so crucially to the blister at the stock markets contributed. The American wirtschaftswunder would be then only one of the issuing bank financed fiction. Enterprises would have invested too much due to the false growth acceptance; and consumers would have consumed accordingly too much: " those new Economy is buried then finally ", means Edwards. " that is dynamite for the markets, the Boersianer to death will be frightened. " But many strategists show up opposite Edwards sceptically. " he is the only expert, who sees this scenario. Either the Dresdner strategist is ingenious or size mad ", such a market watcher. That sees Edwards left: It is the only Crash Prophet of 20 strategists leading world-wide. But still more probably make a sharp failure, which would come from cheerful sky. Also with view of the recent recovery at the markets very far from the window and risks thereby not only his own career but also the call of Dresdner small word boiler scale actually leans Edwards. Finally is it is after OD Yardeni the first Crash Orakel. The German Banker had at the end of of 1999 a recession and a failure at the stock exchanges had predicted and lay beside thereby completely. Other former Crash Propheten is therefore sceptical. " one can predict a collapse of the stock market exactly not on the week ", says Roland Leuschel, which had prognosticated both the crash 1987 and the recent wing over with the technology titles. Then all market users would lift themselves including the issuing banks against it. Leuschel considers therefore a Crash at present rather improbably. Nevertheless it does not want to exclude a failure on longer period also in view of the meanwhile high evaluations with the default values. " the sharp fall in prices tore itself only the technology values into the depth and to a large extent past went at the broad market. " Obviously even the bulls at the barrier Street see that similar. Thus in this week a whole number of prominent US strategists its prognoses zurechtgestutzt. But with a publicity-pregnant carried forward Crash scenario nobody dares to the public. But resists Edwards public-effective panic-make vehement. " our job is also otherwise excitingly enough, than that we would have to publish such a sensation groundlessly." In this year the strategist was situated in each case gold correct. If it should keep still quite, Boersianer Edwards will lead own words in the mouth, which says: " property night."

To: Lucretius who wrote (115495)	8/3/2001 1:11:48 PM
From: zsteve	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Bank: Tuesday US Data Could Spark Selloff biz.yahoo.com

To: Lucretius who wrote (115495)	8/3/2001 3:43:58 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Chief strategist forecasts Crash on Wall street – Die Welt 3 august The Investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein expects a sharp drop of over 20 per cent on US stock exchanges next week. There’s many crash gurus, but there are only few, who can predict the stock exchange crash exactly to a week. And it is not just anybody: it is Albert Edwards, global chief strategist with Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, who forecasts a crash – in other words a drop of over 20 per cent – on the Wall street for the coming week, which is to cause a world-wide markets earthquake. "So far we never predicted a crash, because there was never any reason to" says Dresdner strategist Albert Edwards. Now the investors should make a big check mark next to the 7th of August. The expert sees as the reason for the failure the new US economic situation data. The coming Tuesday the productivity numbers for the second quarter will be published. A new calculation method will namely lead to the frightening result that the American productivity miracle is a phantom. According to Edwards the maximum growth allowed for the economy to grow without inflation will not be the 3.5%, as so far assumed. " It should only be around 2.5 per cent." That would have serious consequences: the downward revision of the allowable growth rate would force a reconsideration of the entire economic policy including the monetary policies of the Federal reserve. If Edwards is right, then the Fed raised interest rate much too late the last year and thus contributed in a decisive way to the stock bubble. The American economy miracle would then turn out to be only a mirage, financed by the FED. Due to the false assumptions about growth enterprises would have invested too much, and consumers would have consumed too much as well: "The new Economy will then finally be born to grave", thinks Edwards. " this is dynamite for the markets, the investors will be scared to death" But many strategists have skeptical opinion about Edwards. " He is the only expert to see this scenario. Either the Dresdner strategist is a genius or plain mad", says one market watcher. Edwards is not moved: He may be the the only Crash Prophet among 20 leading strategists world-wide. The fact this sharp drop is to fall from blue skies, makes it more probable. Fact is that given the recent recovery of the markets he is leaning very far out the window and risks thereby not only his own career but also the name of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, After all this is the first crash prediction after Ed Yardeni. The Deutsche-Bank strategist predicted recession and a crash at the end of 1999 and he was utterly wrong. Other former Crash Prophets are therefore skeptical." You can’t predict a stock market collapse exactly to the week", says Roland Leuschel, who had predicted both the crash 1987 and the recent implosion of the technology titles. All the market participants including the federal banks would stand together and oppose it. Leuschel thinks therefore that a crash at present is rather improbable. Nevertheless he does not want to exclude a collapse on longer term, in view of the meanwhile high equity valuations. "The sharp price drop dragged only the technology values down, but to a large extent left the broad market untouched.” Obviously even the bulls on the Wall Street share this opinion. This week a host of prominent US strategists cut their predictions. However there’s nobody who dares to confront the public with a highly visible crash prediction. Edwards however resists vehemently the hint of publicity-heavy panicking. “Our job is exciting enough as it is, without having to publish such a sensation without any reason" So far this year the strategist’s predictions were all bull’s eye. Were he right this time as well, the investors will need Edwards’ own final words: “Good night.” unauthorized translation DJ PS: what TF is Welt in terms of business news - otoh the beauty and/or ugliness of the pianist has nothing to do with what he or she plays.