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To: John Madarasz who wrote (1080)	8/4/2001 6:30:12 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1328

John, rydex and put/call ratios remain the best sentiment indicators going, it's how people are voting with their money. WELCOME TO THE OPTION STRATEGIST WEEKLY COMMENTARY VIA E-MAIL from Lawrence G. McMillan's web site OptionStrategist.com, home for serious options traders and students. = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = HAVE YOU TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THESE RECENT MOVES? - Short SFA @ 38, dropped to 22 just nine days later (7/11/01) - Short PPD @ 23, covered last of it at 13.65 (1/11/01) - Bot puts on VRSN when it was 70, sold last of them with VRSN at 44 (2/5/01) - Bot a bullish call spread on $OEX when it was 606; sold last of them with $OEX at 650 (4/16/01) - Shorted NBR at 51, covered the last of it with the stock at 36 (5/24/01) - Bot bear spreads on $OEX with the index at 646, sold them with $OEX at 625 (6/11/01) These are just some of examples of recent profitable DVA trades, full track record available on our website The DAILY VOLUME ALERTS, published every market day and written entirely by Lawrence G. McMillan will get you into these trades. Subscribe today and take 20% off your first month's subscription! Click Here: optionstrategist.com (Discount removed at check out, expires 8/7/01) Professional traders are well aware of the fact that an increase in a stock's option volume is often the precursor of a move by the underlying stock itself provided you can "screen out" extraneous option activity. The DAILY VOLUME ALERT Service comes to you daily with recommendations on stock options based on our proven screening process. GET YOURSELF ON LARRY MCMILLAN'S DAILY VOLUME ALERT LIST TODAY!! = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Friday, August 3rd, 2001 Stock Market The market has bounced strongly off the bottom of the trading range (circa $OEX 600) in the last week. The top of the trading range, however, still represents strong resistance. In the last three days, $OEX has been unable to penetrate through the 630 level. The real resistance, though, is at 640, for that is where $OEX broke down back in June. The bottom line is that the market remains trapped in this trading range. When it was falling towards the bottom of the range (which it did twice during July), it looked terrible. When it rallies off the bottom, as it has also done twice, it looks great. But there is no real follow-through. The market has become overbought during this latest rally. It has risen on six of the last seven days. During that time, it seems as if the market often gaps higher on the opening, only to give back a good deal of the gains by day's end. This type of action has the effect of creating good breadth (because the opening hour often overly influences how the advance-decline numbers will look for the entire day). However, too much of a good thing has now produced a short-term overbought condition. On a positive note, most of the major sentiment indicators have given buy signals, although some are just moving sideways not really following through with a strong reversal of sentiment. The strongest put-call ratio buy signals are emanating from the weighted equity-only ratio and the Nasdaq-100 Tracking Stock (QQQ) weighted ratio. The S&P 500 futures option put-call ratios are both on sell signals, however. Somewhere in the middle are the normal equity-only ratio and the weighted $OEX put-call ratio. The latter two are technically on buy signals because they are no longer rising. However, they aren't dropping much either rather, they are moving more or less sideways with a slight downward bias. Volatility, as measured by the CBOE's Volatility Index ($VIX) is in a trading range as well. It was unable to move higher than the 29 level, which it probed three times in the last few weeks. The bottom of the $VIX trading range is at the 20-21 level. $VIX closed near the middle of the range today. Other volatility measures show similar patterns. The bottom line remains the same: we are not going to believe any major market move unless it breaks out of the trading range. Since the sentiment indicators seem more bullish than bearish, perhaps that breakout if it occurs will happen on the upside. However, we are not going to anticipate such a breakout. If it happens, there should be plenty of upside fireworks, so there is little to lose by waiting for confirmation of any such move. = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Upcoming Events: 1) The Online Trading Expo -Come visit us in Booth #542 (back center of room) for show specials and discounts! Click here for your FREE pass: optionstrategist.com 2) October 12-13 The Market Legends Seminar optionstrategist.com A unique opportunity to spend time with three experts; Lawrence G. McMillan, John Murphy and Martin Pring all under one roof for one weekend. Next Online Seminars: optionstrategist.com 8/6 Intermarket Spreads 8/14 (EVE) Covered Call Writing = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = This is an opt-in free email. All recipients of this email have either purchased products from McMillan Analysis or requested this message be sent. If you would like to be removed from this list simply click on this link and enter your email address into the appropriate form: optionstrategist.com The Option Strategist optionstrategist.com info@optionstrategist.com 973-328-1674

To: John Madarasz who wrote (1080)	8/5/2001 3:51:41 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1328

Look the only 100% full proof indicator for major market turns is the VIX/VXN. The fact were hanging at 22 makes any ST sustained rally highly unlikly.