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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (13881)	8/5/2001 12:02:35 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Justa, >>>>> Re: "Regarding the VIX. It seems to be in a downtrend showing a rising complacency but also allowing it to go lower before sparking a sell off. See here...." I think it is important to try and anticipate a change in trend. I see a very good probability of that now <<<< When I look at the VIX chart, Im actually getting more bearish both for the short-term and longer-term. For the short-term, I simply apply my short-term technicals and surprisingly they have been very accurate, and possibly even more accurate that the stock indices. Right now I have a pattern called a double bottom Thats where I previously had a CLASS 1 BUY on the VIX and I get a second confirmation, even if the index continues down further. I cant remember the last time that a double bottom BUY SIGNAL failed, although theres not alot of them(a few per year). Keep in mind that Im talking about a BUY signal in the VIX which is a SELL signal for the market. Longer-term, although the VIX has set a MINOR LOCAL LOWER LOW, it is still above the JULY 2 trough 20.26. If the VIX does reverse from here, which is implyed by my short-term technicals, then that is still a HIGHER HIGH compared to the more important JULY 2 TROUGH. Another longer-term issue is whether the VIX is forming an INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDERs. I wont make alot about this possible H&S since they only somewhat reliable, but if it is a true H&S the TARGET MEASUREMENT is around 36-37 which would imply a very strong selloff in the overall market. Im not predicting, just stating a possibility. COORDINATES of possible HEAD & SHOULDERs on the VIX: LEFT SHOULDER - JUNE 5 around 21 HEAD - JULY 2 around 20 RIGHT SHOULDER - now around 22 NECKLINE - connect intraday highs of 6/15 & 7/24 around 28.75