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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pink Minion who wrote (50217)	8/6/2001 12:32:45 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

One idea I have had is the market NEVER got bullish enough to drag in the permabears. They never capitulated to the upside. I chart investor sentiment (bulls over bulls+bears for newsletter writers) and it never got over 70%...(I might be able to email you a copy of the graph I just did if you send me regular email that I can reply to - don't use PM as I can't attach a graph.) I would almost expect all these to get to 90% before we could have a real bear, the type of bear that has no safe haven. Compare a real bear to now where we have small cap value funds doing double digit returns for the past two years. Real bears don't have safe havens anywhere in equities from what I have heard so far. This makes me think this is a tech correction that shows as a bear as it is so large and tech is such a large part of the index funds. Also, biotechnology is probably just as bubbly as the internet sector was. One thought is we might get the true bear market if we get a mid length recovery giving us a double top in the DJIA and S&P500 (probably not in the NASDAQ) and the World economy stumbles and crashes in 2002. I think people like Don Hays are predicting this scenario and I believe Hays called the top pretty close in 2000 from what people have told me. A "real bear" [TM] would probably see the biotechnology companies get crushed along with the "normal" technology companies. IF we get a strong market rally that seems to falter at old highs like a double top, perhaps in 2002, then I might lighten up my asset allocation if the fundamentals don't look much better than they do today. Kirk out