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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Timetobuy who wrote (60385)	8/7/2001 9:56:39 AM
From: werefrog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

"If msft were to trade down to a peg of one" Hal C. Lindsey did see MSFT going down to $1 a share because of the year 2000 bug & he was wrong again. "DOW 6000 area or so, it will just languish" At some point, DOW & Nas will come back breaking to new highs. I've traded through many recessions & there is "always" a recovery. Yet, there remains a chance of a depression, so nothing is 100% guaranteed in the markets. Two stocks I've made money on in past recessions are Ford & INTC and I am looking to position trade them this time around. Since MSFT has never had a opportunity to stage a come back until now, the question is can it come back, IBM did. The market is acting like it wants to go lower, with Sept being the worse month for market performance, swing trading is the way to play until mid Oct.

To: Timetobuy who wrote (60385)	8/7/2001 12:16:48 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

<< If msft were to trade down to a peg of one >> There is no time in history where a company such as MSFT with their cash position, dominance in their industry and probable growth of 8% - 15% traded for a peg of one. MSFT would be trading right around book value if it traded at a peg of one. That would give no value to the business side of MSFT and that would be totally ridiculous. You'll won't see MSFT trading at a peg of one unless the growth rate accelerates to around 30% (obviously unlikely) and even then, I think the PE would increase fairly significantly. So, I guess I'll predict that MSFT will NEVER trade at a peg of one unless almost every one of the positive aspects of their business completely evaporate. Most companies don't trade at PE's below 10 unless their growth is NEGATIVE or neutral and shows no signs of significant improvement. That's NOT the story with MSFT. IMO, Dave