To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (39921 ) 8/7/2001 9:40:29 AM From: stockman_scott Respond to of 65232 Intel price cut expected in face of weak demand BY THERESE POLETTI Posted at 1:18 a.m. PDT Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2001 Mercury News Intel shares fell 4.4 percent Monday amid predictions on Wall Street that the world's largest chip maker would soon embark on another round of deep price cuts to stimulate demand for its high-end Pentium 4 chips. The Santa Clara chip maker has been engaged in a price war with its main rival in PC microprocessors, Advanced Micro Devices. AMD has been gaining market share from Intel with its high-performance Athlon chips and through its own aggressive price cuts. ``We believe Intel is planning to detonate a price bomb on AMD by cutting prices about 50 percent on high-end Pentium 4 processors,'' said Dan Niles, a Lehman Brothers analyst, in a note to clients Monday. Niles said he expects Intel to cut prices from 12 percent to 54 percent, effective Aug. 26. An Intel spokesman declined to comment on unannounced pricing moves. In a June conference call with analysts, however, Intel Executive Vice President Paul Otellini said that Intel was moving more rapidly to push its Pentium 4 chips into mainstream PCs and planned a pricing move sometime in August. Otellini also said he expects the company's Pentium 4 chips to displace Itnel's Pentium III family in mainstream PCs (those priced at $800 and above) by the end of the year, which was ahead of its previous forecasts. Shares slide Niles' prediction of an intensified price war, along with similar comments by other analysts, sent Intel's shares down $1.40 to $30.28 in active Nasdaq trading, as some investors worried about the impact on the company's profit. AMD shares also fell, losing $1.63 or 8.4 percent, to $17.62. A few other semiconductor stocks fell in sympathy, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index easing 9.51, or 1.48 percent, to 631.55. Ashok Kumar, an analyst at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, noted that even as PC makers are gearing up for the back-to-school buying season, demand for microprocessors remains weak. Kumar cut his earnings and revenue estimates on Intel and is now looking for third-quarter revenue to be flat with second-quarter revenue of $6.3 billion. ``They will still meet their guidance, but they will come in at the low end of the guidance,'' Kumar said. Niles predicted that Intel will cut prices on its fastest Pentium 4 chip, running at 1.8 gigahertz chip, by 54 percent to $260. He said the price of the 1.7 gigahertz chip will fall 45 percent to $193, from $352. That would bring the Intel's prices much closer to, and even below, AMD's prices for its fastest Athlon chips. Currently, the 1.4 gigahertz Athlon is priced at $253 and the 1.3 gigahertz Athlon is priced at $230. Sunnyvale-based AMD says these chips are equivalent in performance to Intel's fastest Pentium 4 chips. `Very aggressive' John Greenagel, a spokesman for Sunnyvale-based AMD, said Intel was ``very aggressive'' in pricing last quarter. ``Why do they have to bust the price on their newest processor?'' he said. ``Usually you don't do that if you have a great product. We think they have a dog.'' In the first quarter, according to Mercury Research of Scottsdale, Ariz., AMD gained 5 percentage points of market share. In the second quarter, AMD gained only one-tenth of a percentage point and now has 22.2 percent of the PC microprocessor market, while Intel still dominates with 76.7 percent. ``The Pentium 4 didn't ramp as quickly as Intel had hoped,'' said Dean McCarron, an analyst with Mercury Research. But he noted that Intel's upcoming launch of its 845 chip set, a set of companion chips designed to complement the Pentium 4, will also boost sales. The new chip set will let the Pentium 4 chip run with standard memory, instead of only with the more exotic and higher-priced RDRAM from Rambus.