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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (39951)	8/7/2001 2:26:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

cannot simply say "business is worse now" what I can say is... - business has slowed down more abruptly in the last 9 months than anytime in postwar history - mfg capacity built up from 1994 to 2000 faster than anytime in postwar history - real demand grew in tech sector from 1994 to 2000 on a more sustained and prevalent level than in anytime in postwar history - household debt has doubled since early 1980's, while many corporations operate under a huge debt load (e.g. telecoms) - the Y2K Event was unprecedented with its huge rush of demand, followed by its near disappearance more capacity is upon us from miscalculated future demand demand was concentrated into the Y2K time period, now gone debt is huge all around the current economic climate HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE so it is hard to make comparisons but in general, the Federal Reserve needs to loosen further and then announce they are done I still like two ideas: 1. cut rates 100 bpts for four months 2. announce a temporary acceleration in capital equipment depreciation schedules the trouble is that 95% of most mfrs DONT NEED MORE CAPACITY PLANT big debt is pure poison !!! / jim